\u3000\u300 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 2 Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) )
Event: the company released the first quarter report and realized an operating revenue of 2.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 384 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.07%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 336 million, a year-on-year decrease of 41.3%.
Under the pressure of cost / price, the performance decreased and the efficiency of operating cash recovery improved. The national average price of 21q1 float glass was 221749 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 0.78%. However, on the one hand, the demand decreased year-on-year due to the decline of the completed area of the real estate, on the other hand, the price of soda ash / natural gas and other bulk raw and fuel materials increased sharply, and the price of 22q1 heavy soda ash increased 61% year-on-year. Affected by this, the company’s revenue and profit decreased, the gross profit margin decreased by 8.97pct year-on-year, the cost expenditure was relatively stable, and the cost rate remained 13% during the period. The cash to cash ratio of 22q1 company was 106.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4pct, and the accounts receivable and notes decreased by 11.4% year-on-year, which was greater than the decrease of income. Under the background of tight real estate capital chain, the increase of engineering glass accounts receivable may still be reflected in the short term. However, on the whole, the cash flow recovery rate of the company is expected to be improved and the operation quality will be improved. The net operating cash flow of 22q1 company decreased by 239 million compared with 21q1, mainly due to the increase of operating cash expenditure such as the provision of year-end bonus for employees and the purchase of raw materials in 21 years. We believe that in addition to industry factors, the shipment of 22q1 is affected by the epidemic control. With the resumption of work and production in many regions since the end of April, the demand is expected to be released in Q2.
Float actively reserves mineral resources, and Low-E capacity expansion increases the market share. The float glass of the company is positioned as a high-end product, and the gross profit margin is guaranteed under the dual pressure of rising cost and low price; On the other hand, the company arranged the procurement of bulk raw materials, expanded the reserves of mineral resources, extended the industrial chain to the upstream, and effectively hedged the rising pressure of raw material costs. In terms of building glass business, the production capacity of Zhaoqing base (with an annual output of 2.5 million / 3.5 million square meters of hollow energy-saving / coated energy-saving glass) and Tianjin expansion project (with an annual production capacity of 2.76 million square meters) is gradually released; In 2022, Wujiang engineering glass factory (new intelligent manufacturing line of hollow energy-saving glass with an annual output of 1.2 million square meters), Hefei energy-saving glass industry base and Xianning engineering production line reconstruction and expansion project (new hollow energy-saving / coated energy-saving glass with an annual output of 1.2 million square meters) are expected to be completed successively. In 2021, the company’s Low-E hollow glass will occupy more than 40% of China’s high-end market. With the new production capacity put into operation, The company’s high-end market share is expected to further improve. We believe that the demand for real estate completion remains resilient. At present, the biggest variable in the demand for float / building glass is the epidemic. With the continuous relaxation of local governments’ real estate policies, the effect of urban policies may gradually appear, and the orders postponed since the second half of last year may usher in a centralized release.
The performance of electronic glass is expected to maintain high growth, and the technical iteration of high-end products is expected to accelerate. In 2021, the production and sales of the company’s electronic glass business ushered in a substantial growth, and the revenue / profit is expected to continue to grow at a high rate in 2022. In terms of electronic display glass business, the company insists on accelerating product iteration. In the past 21 years, the orders of high aluminum second generation (kk6) electronic glass products have been released among Chinese high-end brand customers. The successful industrialization of Xianning kk6 plus has further improved the technical performance of products such as light transmittance, drop resistance and scratch resistance after strengthening. The verification of high aluminum third generation (kk8) products has also been completed, and the company has made a breakthrough in the technical upgrading of high aluminum electronic glass, In the field of high-end electronic glass, the competitiveness is improved, and the gross profit margin of kk6 / 8 products is high. With the spread of customer recognition effect, it is expected to drive the company’s performance in 22 years.
Photovoltaic glass continues to build new production capacity and provide medium-term increment. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the development of photovoltaic power generation and other new energy power systems is highly uncertain. The company is still optimistic about the development of photovoltaic glass sector and the construction and operation of new production capacity. It is expected that in 2022, Anhui Fengyang 4 1200t / D and Hubei Xianning 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines will be ignited and put into operation in batches. At the same time, the company will accelerate the technical transformation project of Dongguan phase III 650T / D upgraded double glass calendering production line. In addition, the construction of 2 1200t / D photovoltaic calendering glass production line invested by Guangxi Beihai is under preparation. In the future, the new production capacity of photovoltaic glass is about 8400t / D, ranking among the first echelon of photovoltaic glass. The company’s new production line has large melting capacity and high efficiency, which can meet the needs of increasingly large-scale components, and is expected to highlight the late development advantage.
Investment suggestion: we maintain that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 is RMB 2.586/3.234/3.998 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS is RMB 0.84/1.05/1.30 respectively, the corresponding PE valuation is 6.56/5.24/4.24 times respectively, maintain the “buy” rating, and the corresponding 22-year performance target price range is RMB 10.92-12.6.
Risk tip: real estate investment has fallen sharply, the financing of real estate enterprises has been further tightened, the photovoltaic installation is less than expected, and the update speed of consumer electronics products has increased.
