\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 080 Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) )
The company released 2021 annual report + 22q1 quarterly report. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 842 million, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 220 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%. 22q1 revenue and net profit attributable to parent increased by 46.6% and 37.8% respectively year-on-year.
The proportion of TPU inflatable mattress sales increased, and the outdoor luggage market expanded smoothly. 1) Inflatable mattress: in 2021, the revenue was 640 million (+ 47%), of which 4.23 million pieces (+ 11%) were sold, and ASP was 150 yuan (+ 33%), mainly due to the increase in the proportion of TPU sales with high unit price. 2) Outdoor luggage: revenue of 110 million (+ 60%), including sales of 1.853 million pieces (+ 56%), ASP of 59.7 yuan (+ 2%), and the production capacity of factories in Vietnam and Cambodia will be gradually released in 2019. 3) Headrest cushion: the revenue is 56 million (+ 37%), of which the sales volume is 1.877 million (+ 40%), and the ASP is 29.7 yuan (- 2%).
The gross profit margin is subject to short-term effects such as rising raw material prices, and the cost rate has been optimized. 1) Gross profit margin: in 2021, the gross profit margin decreased by 1.9pcts to 38.8% year-on-year, of which the inflatable mattress / outdoor luggage / headrest cushion decreased by 2 / 2.2/11pcts respectively. Quarterly, the gross profit margin of 21q1-q4 was 41.2% / 40.4% / 38% / 33.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9 / - 3.3 / - 4.9 / - 2.9pcts respectively. We believe that the increase in the price of 21h2 raw materials is one of the main reasons for the decline of gross profit margin. 2) Expense rate: the sales / management / R & D expense rate was 1.4% / 5.1% / 3.5% respectively, with an increase of - 1.4 / 0.5 / - 0.1pcts respectively, and the overall expense rate was optimized. 3) Net investment income: in 2021, the net investment income was 25 million, up from 04 million in the same period last year, mainly due to the income from trading financial products and trading financial assets. 4) Effective tax rate: in 2021, the effective tax rate was 14.1%, down 0.2pcts year-on-year.
22q1 revenue growth was eye-catching, which verified that the industry was booming and the gross profit margin remained at a healthy level. 22q1 revenue increased by 46.6% year-on-year, achieving the highest revenue scale in a single quarter. We judge that the prosperity of overseas outdoor sports tracks is still high, and the high growth of annual performance is worth looking forward to. On the other hand, affected by geopolitics such as the Russian Ukrainian war, the company's upstream raw material prices rose sharply. Under this unfavorable background, the company's 22q1 still achieved a gross profit margin of 36.5%, higher than that of 21h2, indicating that the company's order price and industrial structure optimization have a strong ability to stabilize raw materials and exchange rate, and can flexibly deal with the external adverse environment. On the other hand, the company is reducing costs and increasing efficiency Progress in technological innovation has also hedged some risks.
We believe that the company is deeply engaged in the field of TPU inflatable mattresses, and smoothly carries out the expansion and global layout of outdoor new products around core customers. It is expected to continue to enjoy the growth dividend of overseas outdoor high boom + consumption upgrading in the future. 22h2 with the large volume of new categories (including waterproof bags, sup and household inflatable mattresses), the company is expected to open the second growth curve and is optimistic about maintaining sustainable growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the annual report and the first quarterly report, we adjusted the earnings forecast for 22-23 years and predicted that the earnings per share in 20222024 would be 2.96 yuan, 3.97 yuan and 5.10 yuan respectively (compared with 2.98 yuan and 3.9 yuan in the previous 22-23 years). With reference to comparable companies, we gave the company 25 times PE valuation in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 74 yuan and maintained the "buy in" rating.
Tips: lower than the expected fluctuation of raw materials and the price fluctuation of new materials.
