\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 315 Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) )
Core view
22q1 achieved a revenue of 2.117 billion yuan, with a profit of + 17.81% year-on-year. In Q1 of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.117 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 0.11%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 199 million, a year-on-year increase of + 17.81%, and a deduction of non net profit of RMB 212 million, a year-on-year increase of + 6.55%. In the first quarter of this year, the overall consumption environment was under pressure. The offline channels were affected by the epidemic, and the influence of the company’s special channel and super anchor continued to digest. Under the background of multiple adverse factors, the company’s performance was tenacious. It is expected that the influence of special channel and super anchor will be weakened in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
Revenue splitting: the influence of super head is gradually digested online, and the proportion of skin care products affected by the epidemic has decreased. 1) Category: in the past 22 years, Q1 brands of home care, mother and baby care, skin care and cooperation accounted for 52.15%, 23.30%, 21.18% and 3.37% respectively; Among them, skin care products decreased by about 18% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue was about -5pct about year-on-year; The category of family care products increased by about 10% year-on-year; The category of mothers and infants increased slightly compared with the same period; 2) Sub brands: in the skin care category, Yuze was basically the same year-on-year, baicaoji was about – 10% year-on-year, and Diancui and meijiajing decreased by 15-30% respectively. Gehujiaqing: Liushen achieved double-digit growth, and Jiaan was affected by the special canal, with a year-on-year double-digit decline; Category of mothers and infants: decreased by about 15% at the beginning of the year; Overseas business remained flat year-on-year; 3) Excluding the factors affecting the growth of e-commerce channels, the growth rate of e-commerce channels is basically the same as that of medium and medium channels, with about 13% excluding the factors affecting the growth of e-commerce channels. Under the continuous adjustment of special channel business, the year-on-year growth rate was – 40%, and the overall online business decreased by about 13%; Among offline businesses, the growth rate of supermarkets was about 10%, department stores were basically flat, CS decreased by more than 20%, and the overall growth rate of offline businesses was more than 6%. 22q1 online and offline accounts for 27% and 73% respectively, of which online accounts for about – 5pct year-on-year.
Profitable operation: the profitability continues to improve and the cash flow performance is excellent. The gross profit margin of Q1 in 22 years was 62.66%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.57pct, mainly because the company continued to focus on the head SKU and the volume and price of Liushen series products rose simultaneously, digesting the impact of the rise in raw material prices; The net interest rate was 9.42%, a year-on-year increase of + 1.41pct. The sales rate of Q1 in 22 years was 39.77%, year-on-year + 0.88pct, and the management rate was 9.73%, year-on-year -1.66ct; It is mainly due to the reduction of offline activities, meetings and travel costs under the epidemic environment; The R & D rate is 1.50%; The inventory turnover days of Q1 in 22 years were 110 days, which was basically stable year-on-year; Turnover days of accounts receivable + 1 day to 43 days year-on-year; The net inflow of operating cash flow was 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.84%.
Risk warning: the recovery of offline channels is lower than expected; The launch of new products was less than expected.
Investment suggestion: considering that the company continues to create innovative products, actively adjusts e-commerce channels to support the company’s quarterly recovery, and puts down the focus on SKU and fine investment, the profitability is expected to be further supported. We raise the profit forecast and predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 814 / 1018 / 1223 million (originally RMB 710 / 915 / 1161 million), with a year-on-year increase of 25% / 25% / 21%; Diluted EPS is 1.20/1.50/1.81 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE of 26 / 21 / 17x. The company continued to focus on the head SKU to improve the gross profit margin, continued to innovate in marketing, output brand value, make new retail and interest e-commerce channels, further consolidate the competitive advantage and maintain the “buy” rating.
