\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 25.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.14%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.508 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.34%; 22q1 revenue was 13.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.82%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.07%.
Exceeding the growth target, the deduction is not outstanding. Affected by the changes in fair value, the net profit attributable to the parent company was eroded in 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was + 30.44% year-on-year, of which the revenue of 21q4 was 3.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 523 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 286016%. The growth target of 15% was exceeded in the whole year, and the speed up was adjusted in the second half of the reform. In 2021, the company’s sales collection was 36.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71%, the highest level in history, and the contract liabilities at the end of the period were 15.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 79.6%. By the end of 22q1, the contract liabilities were 9.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 59.34%, and sufficient reservoirs were still reserved. Since there is no epidemic in Jiangsu Province during the Spring Festival this year, there are many people returning home, and the sales situation is significantly better than that in the previous two years. Although disturbed by the epidemic in Shanghai in the second quarter, the overall sales proportion in April is not high. This month, the company launched the special marketing action of “70 days of hard work” to prepare for the dynamic sales of money collection after the epidemic, and may continue to maintain a high double-digit growth trend throughout the year.
The dream series has been upgraded smoothly, and the structural optimization promotes the release of profits. In 2021, the total sales volume of medium and high-grade liquor and ordinary liquor was 184000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.13%, the revenue was 21.52 billion yuan and 3.118 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.95% and + 16.06%, the gross profit margin was – 1.7 PCT, + 1.96 PCT to 81.28% and 46.32% respectively, the overall sales gross profit margin was + 3.05 PCT to 75.32% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin of 22q1 was + 1.14 PCT to 77.3% year-on-year. In 2021, we expect that dream 6 + may have grown into a large single product of 5 billion level, with good development momentum in the province. After the replacement of crystal dream, the sales volume has gradually completed the replacement, and has strong competitiveness in the price band of 400500 yuan in the province. Tianzhilan is still being upgraded and cultivated. Haizhilan will stop selling from April 1 and is expected to be listed in the third quarter. In 2021 and 22q1, the sales expense ratio was + 1.64pct and + 0.28pct year-on-year, the management expense ratio was -0.97pct and -0.62pct year-on-year, the net interest rate deducted from non parent company was + 2.29pct and + 1.38pct year-on-year, and the profit elasticity was gradually released.
The national flat reform may further break through the market outside the province. In 2021, the company’s revenue inside and outside the province was 11.556 billion yuan and 13.083 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.87% and + 21.43%, and the proportion of revenue outside the province was + 0.11 PCT year-on-year. After the 2022 Festival, the company will further promote the flat reform, divide the original region into 61 business divisions, delegate decision-making power, change the rigid model of applying the model scheme in the province in the past, and adjust policies to local conditions, which is conducive to the development and cultivation of markets outside the province. After haizhilan gradually enters the stable normal, the upward addition of tianmeng series will be more smooth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: after taking office, the new chairman showed great reform courage. First, the whole staff was given a raise and equity incentive to unite the people, and then the promotion channel of GM was opened to give young people opportunities. Then, the flat reform was adjusted to local conditions. We believe that the development of the company is returning to the right track and the reform results can be expected. We expect the company’s diluted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 6.45 yuan, 7.76 yuan and 9.26 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk; Industry competition intensifies risks
