\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 50 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) )
Matters:
The company issued the annual report of 2021. In 21 years, the revenue was 130356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.06%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.34%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 13.442 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 215.2%. The company will not distribute cash dividends, bonus shares or increase share capital with accumulation fund in this period.
Ping An View:
The performance in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, with a bright month on month increase. In 21 years, the company’s revenue was 130356 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159%, of which the revenue of power battery / energy storage battery / lithium battery materials was 91.49 billion yuan, 13.62 billion yuan and 15.46 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 132%, 601% and 351%. In the 21st year, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 26.28%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.48 PCT, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.12 PCT; The operating cash flow was 42.9 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 133% year-on-year; During the period, the expense rate was 11.34%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.26pct. Quarterly, 4q21 revenue was 56.994 billion yuan, an increase of 203% year-on-year and 94.6% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 267% and a month on month increase of 150%, ahead of the sum of the three quarters, and the performance significantly exceeded the market expectations. We expect that the main reasons for the significant increase in performance in the fourth quarter are as follows: 1) the confirmation of sales volume of some orders is concentrated in the fourth quarter, resulting in a significant increase in sales volume month on month; 2) Some orders adopt the raw material linkage mechanism, so that the product price can transfer the price rise of upstream raw materials; 3) The company has a deep layout in terms of raw materials. Under the background of the sharp rise of upstream materials such as lithium carbonate, there are considerable raw material inventory gains; 4) Q4 confirmed the investment income of 1.1 billion yuan.
With high power growth, the energy storage market ushered in an explosion. In the 21st year, the company’s lithium battery sales volume was 133.4gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 184.8%, of which the power battery sales volume was 116.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 163%, and the energy storage battery sales volume was 16.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 596%; The gross profit margins of power and energy storage batteries were 22% and 28.5% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.6/7.5pct, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials; The unit prices of power and energy storage were 0.78/0.82 yuan / wh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.6% / + 0.8%. The significant decline in the price of power battery was mainly affected by the increase in the installed proportion of lithium iron phosphate. Based on the public data of all parties, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery of the company in 21 years is about 80gwh, the installed capacity abroad is 16gwh, and the amount of revenue recognized but not installed is expected to be about 20gwh; Among them, in Q4, China’s installed capacity was 33.7gwh, the sales volume of power battery was 51.2gwh, and the sales volume of energy storage was 8.8gwh, accounting for 42%, 44% and 53% of the annual total respectively, which is also an important reason for the sharp increase in performance in the fourth quarter. In 22 years, with the further release of production capacity and the completion of European factories, the company’s battery shipments are expected to continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend.
Capacity expansion + customer development + business extension, battery leaders launched an all-round attack. The company has made frequent moves recently. In terms of production capacity, it plans to invest no more than 24 billion yuan to build phases 7 to 10 of Sichuan Shidai Yibin base and 13 billion yuan to build Xiamen Shidai. The total new production capacity is 120gwh, and the expansion of production continues to accelerate. The effective capacity of the company’s battery will reach about 170gwh in 21 years, and it is planned to reach more than 400 / 790gwh by the end of 22 years and 25 years respectively; In terms of customers, the company signed a business agreement with Zhejiang vision, a holding subsidiary of Geely Group, which agreed to supply power batteries with a total of no less than 57gwh from 2022 to 2026, with penalty clauses attached, so that the coverage and cooperation depth of customers can be further improved; In terms of business extension, the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary “times electric service” officially released the power exchange service brand evogo, officially entered the point exchange market, and launched the overall power exchange service for consumers, including the unified battery named “chocolate power exchange block”, as well as the power exchange station and online app. The company launched a comprehensive attack in its own fields, realized the transformation from a single power battery manufacturer to an energy solution provider, and greatly improved the company’s business scope and revenue boundary.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the global wave of electrification is becoming more and more intense, and new and old players are competing to further accelerate the process of electrification. Driven by the continuous growth beyond expectations on the demand side, head battery enterprises are starting a new round of larger-scale production expansion and building a wider moat. At the same time, they are also enjoying the development dividends of this strategic opportunity period. With the accelerated investment and construction of new production capacity, the growth of the company will become more prominent. We raised the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 23 years to 25.24/35.23 billion yuan respectively (the previous value was 17.45/23.41 billion yuan), increased the 24-year forecast to 46.79 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE closing price on April 21 was 37.8/27.1/20.4 times respectively, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating.
1) prompt: if the epidemic situation is not effectively controlled, it will still bring adverse risks to the global production; 2) The risk of intensified market competition, the sharp expansion of industrial capacity, the intensification of industrial competition, or the impact on the existing market pattern and price system; 3) Risk of technical route change: new energy vehicles are still in the period of rapid technological change. If the industrialization process of the next generation technology exceeds expectations, it will have a significant impact on the existing industry pattern, and the early investment recovery capacity will be lower than expected.
