Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) epidemic has caused short-term pressure and does not change the long-term development trend

\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 763 Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) )

Performance

On April 27, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the report of the first quarter of 2022. In 2021, the income was 2.781 billion yuan (+ 33%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 703 million yuan (+ 43%); Q4 achieved a revenue of 644 million yuan (+ 7%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 83 million yuan (- 11%) in a single quarter, and the performance was in line with expectations.

In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 655 million yuan (+ 4%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 166 million yuan (+ 1%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 163 million yuan (+ 1%), which was lower than expected.

Comments

Adhere to the mode of “regional general hospital + branch hospital” and consolidate the advantages of brand and medical resources. As of December 31, 2021, the company has 60 oral medical institutions in operation, with a business area of more than 200000 square meters, 2246 dental chairs and 2.7982 million oral medical outpatients. At present, there are 5 oral cavity group companies in Zhejiang Province, including Hangzhou Hangzhou group and Hangzhou Hangzhou group. Among them, hangkou Pinghai, hangkou Chengxi and ningkou achieved revenues of 736 million yuan, 561 million yuan and 175 million yuan respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21%, 22% and 38%.

All businesses continued to grow and their profitability continued to improve steadily. In 2021, the company’s regional general hospital (hangkou) and regional branches achieved steady growth in medical service revenue, with revenue of 732 million yuan (+ 21%) and 1.642 billion yuan (+ 36%) respectively; The proportion of revenue is 31% (- 2.00pct) and 69% (+ 2.00pct). The income of planting, orthodontics, pediatrics, prosthetics and large comprehensive business increased by 38%, 30%, 32%, 25% and 31% respectively year-on-year. The company has a good control on the expense side. In 2021, the sales expense rate is 0.89% (+ 0.05pct), the management expense rate is 9.30% (- 1.72pct), and the gross profit margin and net profit margin are 46.06% (+ 1PCT) and 28.27% (+ 2pct) respectively, maintaining a steady increase.

Build the brand of cunji and promote the expansion outside the province in an orderly manner. In terms of expansion outside the province, Wuhan cunji stomatological hospital had 108704 outpatients in 2021, an increase of 82% over 2020, and its revenue increased by 63% over 2020. It has achieved profit and loss balance, and its first dandelion branch will also open this year.

Profit adjustment and investment suggestions

The company’s core general hospital has a long-term stable operation, and the “general hospital + branch” model is expected to contribute to long-term growth. However, considering that the Chinese epidemic has caused some interference to the company’s business, the profit forecast for 22 / 23 years is reduced by 25% / 31%. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to its parent company of 779, 975 and 1266 million yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, 25% and 30%. The corresponding PE is 51, 41 and 31 times. Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk tips

Policy risk; Risk of epidemic rebound; Market competition intensifies risks; Talent shortage risk; Cross regional development risks; Medical safety accidents, dispute risks, etc.

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