\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Event: the company disclosed the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022, Q1 achieved an operating revenue of 9.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.20%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.022 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 17.14%. The net cash from operating activities was 934 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 62.14%.
Q1 sales volume is under pressure, and high-end promotes the rise of ton price. In 2022, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 9.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.14%. The company achieved a total beer sales volume of 2.219 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of – 2.8%, mainly due to the repeated covid-19 epidemic in China, which had a great impact on the beer consumption market. The main brand Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) achieved a sales volume of 1.304 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 5.1%. The sales volume increased against the trend, and the upgrading trend of product structure was significant, which drove the ton price to increase by 6.1% year-on-year to 4325.1 yuan / ton. It is expected that the company will continue to promote high-end and focus on the upgrading of product structure in the future.
The pressure of rising costs has been eased and the cost structure has been upgraded. With the continuous rise of raw material prices, the ton cost of Q1 company increased by 6.9% year-on-year in 2022, highlighting the pressure on the cost side, and the comprehensive gross profit margin in a single quarter decreased by 0.47pct to 37.85%. On the expense side, in 2022, the Q1 sales expense rate decreased by 1.25 PCT to 14.20%, the management expense rate increased by 0.06 PCT to 3.86%, and the expense rate remained stable. Benefiting from the price increase and the improvement of product structure, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2022 was 1.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.20%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.14%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 0.78pct to 12.23%.
After the epidemic, the sales volume is expected to pick up, and the high-end may accelerate in the future. In 2022, Q1 was affected by covid-19 epidemic, and the company’s sales volume was dragged down to a certain extent. Since March, the epidemic broke out in Shanghai, which had a certain impact on the markets around Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in the short term. After the follow-up epidemic, the sales volume in the peak season is expected to pick up. In 2022, the sales volume of Q1 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) main brands increased by 4.6pct, and the net interest rate increased steadily under the cost pressure. It is expected that the growth momentum of single products such as classic, pure raw, 1903 and white beer will continue in the future, and the high-end process of the company may accelerate. With the influence of price increase and canning rate increase, the long-term profit of the company is expected to continue to rise.
Investment suggestion: maintain the Buy-A investment rating, and the six-month target price is 100 yuan. We expect that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.49/2.72/3.14 yuan respectively, and the target price corresponds to 40 times PE in 2022.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; Intensified competition in high-end beer industry, etc.
