\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 337 Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) )
Affected by the epidemic, the performance is under pressure in the short term, and the "overweight" rating is maintained
Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) 2022q1 revenue was 342 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 41 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.59%. We maintain the profit forecast for 20222024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 300, 380 and 460 million, and the EPS will be RMB 136, 1.74 and 2.11. The current share price corresponds to 22.6, 17.7 and 14.6 times of PE Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) has brand, channel and scale advantages in the existing key regions. It has steadily expanded from East China to the national market and maintained the "overweight" rating.
The impact of the epidemic slowed down the growth of revenue, and the growth of peripheral markets was fast
(1) by product: the revenue of dairy beverage 2022q1 increased by 1.54% year-on-year. The logistics distribution and channels in the company's main markets were greatly affected by the epidemic, and the revenue growth slowed down; (2) By channel: in 2022q1, the distribution channel revenue was 331 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.64%; The revenue from direct sales channels was 9.105 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.76%; (3) In terms of subregions: in 2022q1, the revenue of the three key regions of East China, central China and southwest China was 178 million yuan, 70 million yuan and 55 million yuan respectively. Except that the southwest decreased by 3.38% year-on-year, the other two regions increased by 0.77% and 1.35% year-on-year respectively. The peripheral markets maintained a good growth trend. The revenue of North China, South China, northwest and Northeast China increased by 2.79%, 82.23%, 113.39% and 66.33% respectively year-on-year. With the gradual recovery of local logistics and the gradual recovery of terminal demand, it is expected that with the continuous development of large single products and new products and the further improvement of channel layout, the company's revenue can still grow rapidly.
The decline in net profit margin was mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin and the increase in sales rate
In 2022q1, the net profit margin of the company decreased by 4.2pct to 12%, mainly due to the rising and falling cost of raw materials and energy, and the gross profit margin decreased by 6.5pct to 31.3%. In 2022q1, the company continued to explore peripheral markets and launch expenses during the Spring Festival, and the sales expense rate increased by 1.3pct to 14.8%. Looking forward to 2022, there will be upward pressure on raw materials and packaging materials at the cost side, but the company is the leader of neutral milk beverage, which can alleviate the cost pressure through various ways, such as price increase and product structure adjustment; The rate is expected to remain high during the promotion of nationalization. On the one hand, the company has further expanded its production base and other channels. On the other hand, the company has further expanded its production potential. On the other hand, the company has further expanded its own catering market.
Risk tips: capacity expansion is less than expected, channel expansion is less than expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.
