\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 262 Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) )
Event: 1) the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it achieved an operating revenue of 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.09%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 798 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.46%. 2) The company released the first quarter report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 992 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.79%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 189 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45%.
Performance side: the anesthesia sector supports “half the sky”, and the spirit and nerve sectors are callback under the influence of centralized mining. In 2021, under the influence of centralized drug procurement and covid-19 epidemic, the company’s performance maintained high growth. In 2022q1, the company’s performance further accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 12.45%. (1) The anesthesia sector performed well. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 1.059 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.41%, and its proportion in revenue increased from 39.27% in 2020 to 49.77% in 2021, supporting the “half sky” of the company. In 2021, the company accelerated the market access of remifentanil injection and remifentanil series products; (2) The performance of the spiritual and neurological sectors showed a correction, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.56% and 15.44%. The correction of the sector is closely related to the decline in the sales of aripiprazole, duloxetine and gabapentin included in the fourth and fifth batches of centralized procurement drugs. The other major varieties in the mental and neurological sectors, such as cilacidone and riluzole, are not included in the 500 centralized mining catalogue, so the risk of centralized mining in the short term is small. In the face of the impact of centralized procurement, the company vigorously strengthens the sales model of combining inside and outside the hospital. We predict that the spiritual and neurological sectors are expected to resume growth in 2022.
R & D side: the company has a firm belief in the transformation to the combination of imitation and innovation, and strives to innovate “Huashan one road”. (1) The company spared no effort to increase R & D investment. In 2021, R & D expenses reached 352 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.89%, and R & D investment accounted for 8.93% of operating revenue; (2) In 2021, the company’s R & D personnel exceeded 750, a year-on-year increase of 25.5% over 2020; (3) In terms of innovative drug research and development, the company currently has more than 20 new drug projects under development. In 2022, the company actively promoted the clinical trials of three new drugs (nh600001, cy150112 and nh102), established 3-5 new innovative drug projects, and strived to submit ind application materials for five new drugs; (4) In the research and development of generic drugs, we will accelerate the consistency evaluation of flumazenil injection and midazolam injection. Five varieties that have been declared for approval are worth looking forward to (oselidine fumarate (trv130) and injection, dizocine and injection, etomidate medium and long chain fat emulsion injection, olanzapine tablets, midazolam hydrochloride and oral solution (118mL: 236mg), Dizocine injection has entered the stage of comprehensive review, and it is recommended to focus on it.
Globalization: licensein is emerging, and macromolecular drugs are on their way to the stars and the sea. (1) Signed a global drug research and development cooperation license agreement with Belgium COMPLIX company to jointly develop cell penetrating antibodies (cpabs) that can cross the blood-brain barrier for the treatment of central nervous system diseases. (2) Signed a license agreement with Denmark Lingbei company to reach an exclusive license for the development, production and commercialization of Denmark Lingbei’s R & D project luaf35700 (an innovative drug in the central nervous system field) in Greater China. (3) Actively promote the FDA re certification of the company’s APIs and preparations, accelerate the international registration of fenofibrate products, lithium carbonate, miconazole nitrate, buspirone hydrochloride, duloxetine hydrochloride and other products, and accelerate the international trade of the company’s APIs and preparations.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: “Jingma” industry has always been regarded as a sector with strong regulation, high barriers and high moat, Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) is the only listed company in China that focuses on the R & D and production of central nervous system drugs. Although the sales of aripiprazole, duloxetine and other products declined to some extent due to the impact of policies in the fourth and fifth batches of volume procurement, the company focused on expanding the broad market and new retail market outside the hospital through the sales mode of combining inside and outside the hospital to improve the market share; At the same time, strengthen the promotion of anesthesia and create a new growth pole. With the continuous improvement of the parent company’s R & D investment of RMB 1.39 billion, the corresponding net investment of “purchase” and “imitation” is expected to be RMB 1.09 billion and RMB 1.99 billion in 2021, respectively, and the corresponding ratings of “purchase” and “imitation” are expected to be RMB 1.09 billion and RMB 1.02 billion respectively.
Risk tip: the R & D progress is less than expected, the commercialization progress of core varieties is less than expected, and the policy impact is more than expected.
