\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
In 2022q1, the revenue recovered by 62%, and the performance increased and decreased, mainly due to the disturbance of the epidemic. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.212 billion yuan / – 4.64%, and a return to parent performance / deduction of non performance of -232 million yuan / – 259 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50 million yuan / 69 million yuan and eps-0.19 yuan, mainly due to the repeated epidemic in China and the impact of travel control. Compared with 2019q1, the company’s revenue only recovered 62.37%, and its performance was further under pressure under the epidemic. In terms of business, Q1 hotel revenue is 1.108 billion yuan / – 3.99%; The operating income of the scenic spot is 105 million yuan / – 11.05%; The total profit of the hotel was 325 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54 million yuan, and the total profit of the scenic spot was 53 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5123 million yuan.
RevPAR of Q1 hotel only recovered 63%, and the opening of new stores increased slightly, but the closing of stores also increased. RevPAR of 2022q1 hotel is 86 yuan / – 8.8%, the house price is 174 yuan / + 3.0%, and the occupancy rate is 49.2% / – 6.3pct. Compared with 19q1, the company’s RevPAR recovered only 63%, slowing down month on month (69% / 91% / 71% / 71% for 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 respectively), adr-2.8% and occ-27.5pct. In 2022q1, the number of new stores opened by the company is 190 (184 in 21q1), 8 Direct stores / 182 franchisees, and 31 / 57 / 101 / 1 economic / medium and high-end / light management / others. There was a net increase of 77 stores in 22q1 (97 stores in 21q1), and the number of stores closed under the epidemic increased. As of 2022q1, the company has 5993 hotels and 478819 guest rooms. There are 1426 medium and high-end hotels, accounting for 23.8%. 744 Direct stores, accounting for 12.4% (guest rooms accounting for 18.6%).
The existing reserve stores are expected to support the goal of opening stores in 2022, pay attention to the follow-up epidemic and relax the pace of travel policies. As of 2022q1, the company’s reserve stores have reached 1827 (310 / 541 / 966 / 10 economical / medium and high-end / light management / management output respectively), which is at an all-time high, providing support for the planned 18002000 new stores in the whole year, and actively promoting the goal of 10000 stores in three years. Although it is still necessary to track the epidemic situation and the pace of liberalization in the short term, the company’s performance will also be flexible when the industry recovers in the future. By the end of 2022q1, the total number of members had reached 134 million / + 4.69%, which continued to increase; In addition, ShouLv group, the major shareholder of the company, previously promised to inject some of its qualified Hotel asset management rights into listed companies by the end of 2022. At present, it is actively promoting and is expected to further contribute to performance increment in the future.
Risk tips: repeated epidemics, travel restrictions, store expansion and lower than expected reform of state-owned enterprises.
Investment suggestion: considering the recent repeated epidemic situation in some regions of China and the impact of travel restrictions, we reduced the company’s EPS for 22-24 years to 0.27/0.92/1.27 yuan (previously 0.37/1.02/1.28 yuan), corresponding to pe84 / 25 / 18x. On the whole, the company will look at the performance elasticity under the industry clearing + travel recovery in the future; Second, under the three-year goal of ten thousand stores, the expansion of store scale is accelerated; Third, we should actively promote the asset integration of major shareholders. It is suggested to track the changes in recovery expectations and maintain “buying”.
