\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Core view
The company released its annual report for 21 years and the first quarterly report for 22 years. The revenue in 21 years was 20.642 billion yuan (YoY + 24.0%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.956 billion yuan (YoY + 32.5%), and the revenue exceeded 20 billion yuan. The revenue of 22q1 was 6.312 billion yuan (YoY + 26.1%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.876 billion yuan (YoY + 32.7%), and the performance maintained a high growth rate.
The volume and price of medium and high-grade liquor have risen, and the product structure has been further optimized. In the 21st year, the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor was 18.397 billion yuan (YoY + 29.2%), and the sales volume and ton price increased by 25.4% and 3.0% respectively. It is expected that the steady growth of national cellar throughout the year will drive the ton price upward, and the growth rate will slow down due to the influence of Tequ and cellar age controlled goods; In the second half of the year, the revenue increased by 21.3 yoy billion yuan, including 21.3 billion yuan; In the whole year, the income of medium and high-grade liquor accounted for 90.1% (YoY + 3.6pct), and the product structure was further improved. In the past 21 years, the revenue of other alcoholic drinks was 2.018 billion yuan (yoy-8.7%), and the sales volume and ton price changed by – 51.8% and 89.4% year-on-year respectively, with a large range of structural adjustment. At the end of the 21st century, the number of dealers was 1931, with a year-on-year decrease of 290. 22q1 contract liabilities amounted to 1.763 billion yuan (YoY + 4.2%), and the enthusiasm of channel payment remained unchanged.
The gross profit margin remained upward and the profitability improved steadily. In the 21st year, the gross profit margin was 85.7% (YoY + 2.7pct), including 90.3% (YoY + 0.1pct) for medium and high-grade wines and 45.1% (YoY + 4.9pct) for other wines, which increased steadily; The sales expense ratio was 17.4% (yoy-1.1pct), and the expense investment efficiency was improved; The management expense ratio was 5.1%, basically unchanged year-on-year, and taxes and surcharges accounted for 13.9% of revenue (YoY + 0.5pct); Overall, the net profit margin of sales was 38.5% (YoY + 2.7pct), and the profitability was improved. 22q1 gross profit margin is 86.4% (YoY + 0.4pct), sales expense ratio is 10.7% (yoy-2.8pct), management expense ratio is 4.4% (YoY + 0.4pct), and taxes and surcharges account for 10.4% (yoy-2.5pct) of revenue; Overall, the net profit margin of 22q1 sales was 45.8% (YoY + 2.2pct), and the profitability improved significantly.
The business objectives are expected to be successfully realized and the long-term growth value is optimistic. Marginally, the rated price of Guojiao is about 915 yuan, which is basically stable month on month. The company plans to increase its operating revenue by no less than 15% year-on-year in 22 years, which is expected to be realized smoothly. Low grade national cellar, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952 and other products are added to the sub high-end price belt to create an important growth point. In the medium and long term, the general trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading is advancing steadily, the 1000 yuan price band is expanding, and the national cellar is expected to continue to earn income. The short-term epidemic has impacted the consumption of Baijiu, but the leading companies have the ability to cross the economic cycle and are optimistic about the future growth space of the company
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
By raising the revenue and gross profit margin, it is predicted that the earnings per share of the company in 22-24 years will be 7.00 yuan, 8.68 yuan and 10.44 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 6.73 yuan and 8.29 yuan). In combination with comparable companies, 31 times PE in 22 years is given, corresponding to the target price of 217 yuan, and the buy rating is maintained.
Risk warning: consumption upgrading is less than expected, national cellar sales is less than expected, and food safety incident risks
