\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 021 Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 10.86 billion yuan (year-on-year + 16%), corresponding to a net profit attributable to the parent of 39.11 million yuan (a loss of 590 million yuan in the same period of 20 years), deducting a loss of 110 million yuan (a loss of 800 million yuan in the same period of 20 years). Quarterly, Q1 ~ Q4 revenue is 2.2 billion yuan, 3.2 billion yuan, 3.2 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company is – 280 million yuan, 300 million yuan, 150 million yuan and – 120 million yuan respectively. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.36 billion yuan (year-on-year + 6%), corresponding to a net profit loss attributable to the parent company of 440 million yuan.
In terms of operation data, RPK was + 14% year-on-year, with a recovery rate of 87% compared with 19 years. Among them, China’s RPK increased by 21% year-on-year, 132% in the same period of 19 years. Ask + 10% year-on-year, with a recovery rate of 95% compared with 19 years. In terms of passenger seat rate, the annual passenger seat rate in 21 years was 87.87% (year-on-year + 3.2pp), of which the passenger seat rate of Chinese routes was 83.06% (year-on-year + 2.65pp).
In terms of fleet introduction, the compound growth rate of 20222024 fleet was 6.37%. As of December 2021, the company has a fleet of 113 aircraft, including 61 self purchased and 52 leased. A total of 21NEO and A35 aircraft were introduced in 2021. It is estimated that the size of the company’s fleet from 2022 to 2024 will be 119, 128 and 136 respectively.
The customer revenue rebounded, and the cost of fuel deduction and unit cost decreased. In 2021, the passenger kilometer revenue was 0.306 yuan (year-on-year + 0.7%), including 0.3 yuan (year-on-year + 8.7%) for China line, 0.446 yuan (year-on-year – 31.5%) for regional line and 2.432 yuan (year-on-year + 287.9%) for international line. In 2021, the unit cost of the company was 0.2732 yuan (year-on-year + 3.6%), of which the unit fuel cost was 0.0811 yuan (year-on-year + 33%), and the unit fuel deduction cost was 0.1921 yuan (year-on-year – 5.4%). In 2021, the oil distribution center rose by 70%, and the crude oil price sharply put great pressure on the cost side of airlines. At present, the company’s excellent management and control ability is still in place for a long time.
Enrich China’s airline network and speed up the cultivation of new bases. At present, the company has 218 routes in China. During the epidemic period when the international line has not been opened, the company actively settled in China’s ten million airports. In addition to increasing overnight aircraft in the original bases such as Shanghai, Shijiazhuang, Shenyang, Lanzhou, Yangzhou, Ningbo and Jieyang, the company signed contracts with Nanchang and Dalian bases successively in 2021 and has invested three overnight aircraft.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. During the “14th five year plan” period, the growth rate of aircraft fleet size in the aviation industry is expected to be less than 6%, and the compound growth rate of demand in the same period is 5.9%. Civil aviation will usher in the improvement of supply and demand structure in the medium term. The company achieved counter trend expansion during the epidemic period. In the summer and autumn flight season of 22 years, the company’s growth rate was 20% (industry growth rate was 10%), and the fleet introduction plan in the next three years was also higher than the industry average. The ability to turn losses into profits in the industry downturn reflects the company’s solid business style and the ability of refined operation. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 300, 1.4 and 3.2 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 133, 30 and 13 times of PE. At present, the market value of the company’s single machine is only in the historical 20% quantile, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: China’s epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of travel demand is blocked, the macro-economy is down, and the cost of crude oil is rising
