Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. in the short term, the market wait-and-see mood spread due to the fund position adjustment and stock exchange and the covid-19 epidemic. However, with the fundamentals and liquidity underpinning, the market still has support and boost with the good expectation of the financial data in the beginning of the year, and the bargain hunting can still be configured well in the current momentum.
Today, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, then fluctuated lower, and sorted out in the green disk position. In the afternoon, financial stocks fell sharply, and Baijiu stocks plunged and the index continued downward. The Shanghai index fell below the semi annual line, while the Shenzhen Composite Index ushered in a new low in the second round of adjustment. On the plate, coal, petroleum, petrochemical and banking performed well, while most plates fell, with food and beverage leading the decline, and building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and beauty care leading the decline.
Let’s look at the plate that has fallen today, with Baijiu taking the lead. In particular, the afternoon Baijiu stock fell across the board, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) intraday plunge exceeded 5%, under the influence of big weight directly dragging down the index. The news face, there is no real cause Baijiu stock fall, can be thought of, one is the market for Moutai’s price increase game caused plate volatility, coupled with the Fed’s interest rate accelerated expectations, the valuation of pressure. Of course, it can also be understood as a decline in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) after a continuous rebound of 35%. From the plate, the spring consumption season is coming, driven by price increases and performance, high-end Baijiu and strong resilient sub high end varieties still have investment value. Therefore, the decline of short-term valuation should be a good time to consider low absorption.
In addition, pharmaceutical stocks, Hong Kong biomedical stocks generally fell, and A-Shares also fell. Among them, Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) fell by the limit due to the closure and rectification of its hospitals, while most of the other varieties with large declines were the targets of traditional Chinese medicine, which had risen sharply before. Obviously, they were also the flight of short-term funds, but did not change the favor of medium-term funds.
Therefore, there is no substantial negative market at present. Most of them are the influence of internal and external emotions and the rotation and repetition under the game of stock funds. In this process, including the banks, securities companies and oil sectors that once rose this morning, the overall performance is actually stable. This stability, one is underestimated value advantage, the other is performance boost. Of course, with other undervalued varieties, the overall logic of the undervalued sector since the end of last year is continuing.
Overall, in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank’s RRR reduction combined with the LPR reduction gradually opened the monetary easing cycle. The stock market is a barometer of the currency and will be supported and boosted as a whole. In the past two months, the leading economic indicator PMI continued to rise, superimposed on the just released financial data, the expectation of short-term economic recovery was strengthened, and the overall market trend was obvious. In this tone, we continue to be optimistic about the spring market, especially under the stable growth tone and the expectation of loose liquidity, the valuation improvement of undervalued sectors and the expectation of make-up rise. At the same time, in the process of rotation, the oversold high boom growth stocks can still be actively tracked, and bargain hunting can be properly considered for allocation.
