\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 9.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.1%, a beer sales volume of 2.219 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of – 2.8%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.2%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.1%.
The epidemic has repeatedly affected mobile sales, and the product structure has been continuously optimized. From January to February in 2022, under the influence of the Spring Festival, the company’s dynamic sales are expected to make a “good start”. In March, the epidemic situation occurred repeatedly in various places, including Shandong Province, the company’s base market, which had an impact on the dynamic sales of beer. In 2022q1, the company’s sales volume / ton price / ton cost were – 2.8% / 6.1% / 6.9% year-on-year respectively. The overall sales volume was under pressure, of which the sales volume of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) main brand was 1.304 million kiloliters, accounting for + 4.6pct to 61.2% year-on-year, The increasing proportion of main brands drives the continuous optimization of product structure. The gross profit margin of the company’s sales is – 0.5pct to 37.8% year-on-year. The scale effect is expected to dilute the cost pressure in the future.
The improvement of operating efficiency has attracted the attention of non performance growth. The ratio of sales / management / financial expenses of 2022q1 company is 14.2% / 3.9% / – 0.7%, respectively – 1.3% / + 0.1 / + 0.2pct year-on-year. The ratio of R & D expenses is basically the same, and the Q1 sales expenses are – 5.2% year-on-year. On the one hand, it is expected to be affected by the high base (the ratio of sales expenses of 2021q1 is still + 0.9pct to 22.3% year-on-year under the condition of high income growth), on the other hand, the company’s expenses have been increasingly refined in recent years. The impact of the epidemic in March is expected to affect the progress of some sales expenses, Driven by the improvement of operating efficiency, the net interest rate of parent ownership / deduction of non parent ownership was 12.2% / 11.1%, respectively + 0.8/1.3pct year-on-year, and the net profit of deduction of non parent ownership was + 17.1% year-on-year. The total non recurring profit and loss of the current period was 104 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 30.2%, mainly due to government subsidies ranging from – 31.4% year-on-year to 85.255 million yuan.
The marginal impact of the epidemic is weakened. Pay attention to the dynamic sales in the peak season. With the marginal impact of the epidemic weakening and the mobile sales of beer entering the peak season, Tsingtao beer is expected to achieve high growth based on the low base of sales in the peak season in 2021. At present, the impact of the epidemic in Shandong and Shaanxi is gradually weakened, and the short-term “retaliatory” consumption can be expected. From the company’s Q1 ton price and sales performance of main brands, the high-end process has not been repeatedly affected by the epidemic. Considering the continuous improvement of product structure and the impact of price increase last year, and the marginal slowdown of superimposed cost pressure, it is expected that the annual ton price rise can cover the cost rise. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the dynamic sales in peak seasons, and the annual growth can still be expected.
Profit forecast: maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be 41.6/44.5/5.15 billion yuan respectively, add back the one-time impairment of plant closure and equity incentive, and exclude the impact of 440 / 700 million yuan of land expropriation compensation on performance in 2021 / 2022. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is 3.78/46.7/5.26 billion yuan, and the adjusted PE is 30 / 24 / 21 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects mobile sales, the high-end process is less than expected, and the cost rise is higher than expected.
