\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 808 China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) )
Key points
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 6.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15% and a month on month decrease of – 27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 304 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68%, and a month on month increase of 1.4 billion yuan.
Comments:
Q1 performance recovered steadily and equipment utilization rate rebounded: in 2022q1, the international oil price rose as a whole, the upstream exploration and development capital investment continued to grow, and the recovery trend of oilfield service industry was obvious. Driven by the “seven-year action plan” to increase reserves and production, the main workload and equipment utilization rate of each sector of the company increased. In terms of exploration and development business, by the end of 22q1, the company’s drilling platform had operated for 3922 days, with a year-on-year increase of 631 days or 19.2% affected by the overall recovery of the oil service industry. Among them, the jack up drilling platform operated for 3239 days, with a year-on-year increase of 26.1%. Under the influence of the recovery of the industry, the ship service business has increased 10 operating and management ships year-on-year, with a total of 12768 days of operation in this period, an increase of 1082 days year-on-year. In terms of geophysical exploration and collection services, due to the reduction of overseas operations and the impact of China’s seasonal operation window, the operation volume decreased year-on-year.
CNOOC’s “seven-year action plan” provides guarantee, and the upstream capital expenditure increases steadily: under the background of the central government’s clear demand for increasing oil and gas exploration, the parent company CNOOC actively responds to the national call. The “seven-year action plan” proposes that the company’s exploration volume and proved reserves should be doubled by 2025, and the “two 20 million” production targets of oil fields in the West and east of the South China Sea are also put on the agenda. The parent company CNOOC’s Q1 capital expenditure in 2022 was 16.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.6%. The annual capital expenditure plan was 90-100 billion yuan, a steady increase from 87.5 billion yuan in 2021. Driven by the “seven-year action plan” of CNOOC China to increase reserves and production in Shanghai, the company’s future performance is expected to be further thickened.
The recovery of oil prices will drive the recovery of the oil service industry, and increase R & D investment to provide technical support: the pattern of crude oil supply and demand is tight. It is expected that the oil price will remain high in 2022 and the prosperity of the oil service industry will continue to recover; The company’s R & D expenses increased steadily, reaching 190 million yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of + 5.6%. The company’s independent scientific and technological innovation has achieved a number of technological breakthroughs, such as the self-developed “Xuanji” rotary steering and logging while drilling system has full specification field operation ability, and the self-developed high-temperature and high-pressure anti-corrosion cement slurry system has broken through the technical bottleneck of high-temperature and high-pressure highly deviated wells in the South China sea. With the breakthrough and breakthrough of the company’s core technology, the oilfield service capacity has been continuously improved and improved, and the company’s industry position has been further consolidated.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s performance recovery is in line with expectations. We maintain the profit forecast of the company. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 2.802/3.273/3.853 billion yuan respectively, equivalent to EPS of 0.59/0.69/0.81 yuan / share respectively. In 2022, the supply and demand pattern of crude oil is good, the oil price is expected to remain high, the policy of “increasing reserves and production” continues to be promoted, the capital expenditure of CNOOC, the parent company, continues to grow, the prosperity of China’s oil service industry is expected to maintain, continue to be optimistic about the future development prospects of the company, and maintain the “buy” rating of A-Shares and the “overweight” rating of H shares.
Risk warning: international crude oil price fluctuation risk; The expected capital expenditure of CNOOC; exchange-rate risks; Overseas market risk.
