\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Events
On April 28, the company released the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22 years. In 21 years, the revenue reached 66.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.2%. In the first quarter of the year, the revenue reached 27.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.1%.
Business analysis
The performance in the first quarter was in line with expectations, and the cash flow pressure was actively adjusted. 22q1 revenue + 13%, which is in line with previous expectations. Considering that the comprehensive ex factory price of the product is raised to 969 yuan in five and 22 years, the overall price is expected to increase by one digit and the volume is expected to increase by one digit. 22q1 sales received 13.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 34.8%; The scale of advance receipts at the end of 22q1 was 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 27.2%. We expect that: 1) under the disturbance of external risks, the company actively reduced the proportion of cash receipt and payment in advance receipts, and the scale of notes receivable in 22q1 was 28.29 billion yuan (+ 52.8%); 2) The base in the same period of 21 years was highly affected by the cash received at maturity of notes, with 22q1 notes receivable + 18.6% (same period of 21 years – 0.3%); 3) Considering the rhythm factor, the cash received from 22q1 + 21q4 sales totaled 42.72 billion yuan (- 5.4%), and we believe that the flexible adjustment of cash received policy reflects the stable business model of the company and makes peace with the concept of “joint consultation, joint construction and sharing”.
The profitability has been improved, and the series of wines continue to focus. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company of 22q1 was 39.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.0pct. Among them: 1) the gross profit margin increased by 2.0pct to 78.4%, which is expected to be driven by the increase of the comprehensive cost price of puwu; In terms of liquor series, we have continued to focus on cleaning up and returning 7 general distribution brands and 509 products in 21 years. 2) The sales expense ratio is + 0.3pct to 7.4%, the management expense ratio is – 0.3pct to 3.6%, and the proportion of taxes and surcharges is + 0.4pct to 14.1%. The overall expense side remains stable.
Keep it steady and plan ahead. The company’s 22-year planning goal is to maintain double-digit steady growth, which is in the fifth five year plan
Based on the increase of contribution price, we think the volume will be more leisurely. 1) The company has controlled the goods and sorted out the channels since mid and late March, and is expected to regain channel confidence to support the price, so as to alleviate the current pressure on the rating. 2) In the 21 years, the revenue of distribution / direct sales mode was + 10.5% / + 64.4% year-on-year respectively. The company actively promoted the layout of new retail channels and encouraged distribution channels to increase the layout of group purchase to improve the profit level.
Investment advice
We expect the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 22-24 years to be 15% / 16% / 15% respectively, corresponding to net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 27 / 314 / 36.2 billion; EPS is 6.95/8.10/9.33 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 24 / 20 / 18x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, less than expected channel sorting, food safety problems.
