\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 705 Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) )
Performance review
On April 27, the company released the annual report of 21 years and the first quarter report of 22 years. The revenue of 21 years was 14.912 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.05%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 792 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 29.15%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent was 682 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 26.77%. The revenue of 21q4 was 4.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.26%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 198 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.24%. The net profit attributable to the parent after deduction was 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.60%. 22q1’s revenue was 3.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.46%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 178 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.60%. The net profit attributable to the parent after deduction was 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 11.71%.
Business analysis
Revenue side: 2021 annual report: the foreign revenue in 21 years was 11.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.24%; China’s market revenue was 3.289 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.03%, of which the revenue of Mofei brand was about 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%, that of Dongling brand was about 240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21%, and that of other independent brands was about 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15%. 21q4: foreign income is about 3.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.7%; China’s market revenue was 1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.9%, including 530 million yuan for Mofei brand, a year-on-year increase of + 18%, and about 100 million yuan for Dongling brand, a year-on-year increase of + 4%. 22q1: the epidemic affected the sales of Chinese brand business, which was slightly under pressure. The foreign revenue is about 2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17%, and the Chinese market is about 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3%. Among them, the base number of Mofei brand in the early stage is high, and the epidemic in March affects the sales rhythm or is under slight pressure. The Dongling brand is expected to grow slightly, and other businesses are expected to grow in double digits.
Profit side: raw materials affect the profit, and the repair period is expected to be 22 years. 2021 annual report: the gross profit margin of 21 years was 17.6%, with a year-on-year decrease of – 5.7pct, of which the OEM business decreased by 5.1pct and the independent brand business decreased by 7.6pct, mainly due to the impact of raw material prices. 21q4: the gross profit margin is 17.8% (- 3.7pct), and the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio is – 0.4 / – 1.0 / – 0.2 / – 2.7pct respectively. The obvious decline in the financial expense ratio is mainly due to the obvious exchange loss in the same period of 20q4, and the comprehensive net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.7%, which is – 0.4pct year-on-year. 22q1: the company’s gross profit margin is 16.6%, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.4pct. It is expected that the profit margin of brand business will be under pressure due to the rigidity of raw material prices and costs. In terms of rates, the sales (- 0.7pct) and management (- 1.1pct) rates will be reduced, the R & D and financial rates will be increased by 0.4pct and 0.3pct respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.9%, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.4pct, which has improved month on month. Net profit attributable to parent company decreased by 12% after non deduction, mainly due to the significant increase in government subsidies, investment income from foreign exchange contracts / options and income from changes in fair value over the same period.
Profit adjustment & investment suggestions
We estimate that the total operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 15.818 billion yuan, 17.372 billion yuan and 18.873 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, 9.82% and 8.64% respectively. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 991 million yuan, 1.205 billion yuan and 1.422 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.02%, + 21.67% and + 17.94% respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE in 20222024, which is 12x, 10x and 9x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The expansion of new products is less than expected, the risk of increased foreign trade friction, the risk of sharp exchange rate fluctuation, the risk of sharp rise in raw material prices, and the risk of termination or non renewal of MOFTEC China’s authorization.
