\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 027 Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 14.836 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.64%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.43%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 3.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.641 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.93%. In 2022q1, the company realized a revenue of 2.939 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.19%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 929 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.12%. The interim dividend in 2021 was 3.003 billion yuan, and the annual dividend in 2021 was 1.877 billion yuan.
The company's 2021q4 building media revenue was 3.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.95%, and the theater media revenue was 325 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.79%. In 2022q1, the building media revenue was 2.655 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.15%, and the theater media revenue was 282 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.85%., The year-on-year decline in 2021q4 and 2022q1 was mainly due to the high base effect of educational advertisers and the epidemic situation, which led to the delay of some advertisers in publishing.
The decline of operating costs exceeded our expectations, and the increase of gross profit strengthened the leverage effect: in 2021, the operating cost of the company's buildings decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the point increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 2.673 million yuan, mainly due to the decline of employee compensation caused by the optimization of technical promotion personnel, the completion of depreciation of some assets and the slowdown of industrial competition, which better controlled the point cost of a single building. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021q4 and 2022q1 reached 67.53% and 63.37% respectively. The decline of gross profit margin in 2022q1 is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai and Shenzhen, but it is only a short-term decline. The gross profit margin of 2021q4 reached a new high since 2018q3, and the leverage effect was further strengthened.
The increase in the proportion of consumer advertisers will further strengthen the stability of the company's performance: the proportion of daily consumer advertisers and entertainment and leisure advertisers will reach 39% and 7% respectively in 2021, 35% and 6% in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 35% and 40% respectively. The continuous improvement of the proportion of consumer products will enhance the performance stability of focus. Consumer advertisers are different from Internet advertisers. Their advertising strategy is very regular. Consumer enterprises have the demand for product release and publicity every year. Their advertising accounts for a fixed proportion of revenue and will not fluctuate greatly like Internet enterprises. In 2019, when Internet advertisers significantly reduced their advertising, their consumer customers still maintained a 21% growth. Therefore, as long as the revenue of consumer enterprises does not decline sharply, their advertising will also remain stable The correlation between Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) and macroeconomic cycle fluctuations will gradually decrease.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the reason that the epidemic situation in Shanghai may recover in the middle and later part of the second quarter, we adjusted the revenue forecast for 20222023 from 16.895 billion yuan and 18.558 billion yuan to 14.456 billion yuan and 16.596 billion yuan. We expect the revenue in 2024 to be 18.319 billion yuan. We adjusted the EPS forecast of 20222023 from 0.48/0.55 yuan to 0.41/0.51 yuan. We expect the EPS to be 0.60 yuan in 2024, corresponding to 12.97/10.35/8.88 times of the current PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation exceeds expectations, competition intensifies and payment collection is unfavorable
