\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 67 Ningxia Xiaoming Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300967) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The annual net profit of the parent company was 8.17 yoy + 2.18 billion yuan, with a total revenue of 8.17 + 2.18 billion yuan. In the first quarter of the year, the revenue was 188 million yuan, yoy + 27.41%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 136439 million yuan, yoy-21.23%.
The volume and price of commodity generation chicks have risen simultaneously, and the performance in 22 years is still expected to continue to grow. Benefiting from the rising price of eggs, the laying hens made up the fence actively, and the quantity and price of the company's commodity generation chicks rose simultaneously, driving the high growth of the company's performance. In the past 21 years, the company sold 173 million commercial chickens, yoy + 20.10%; The average price was 3.42 yuan / feather, a year-on-year increase of 0.47 yuan / feather; The gross profit margin of chicken products increased by 1.05pcts to 21.61% year-on-year. The national market share of the company's commodity generation chicks has reached 14.95%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.43 PCTs, ranking in the forefront of the industry. Affected by the poor traffic caused by covid-19 epidemic in Q1 of 22 years, the transportation cost of the company's eggs increased and the profit side decreased. However, we believe that the stock of laying hens is still low, and the demand for supplementary breeding of laying hens is still relatively positive, which is expected to form a strong support for the price of commercial generation chicks in 22 years, and the company's annual performance is still expected to continue to grow.
Steady progress was made in capacity construction and business scale continued to expand. The company has steadily promoted the construction of breeding and incubation capacity. In 21 years, the company expanded minning breeding division, and the second phase of Zuoqi project has also been completed and put into operation. In June, the company introduced 50000 Hailan series ancestral egg breeders from the United States, and the new breeding capacity is expected to be gradually released. In terms of production capacity under construction, the company's Alashan chicken breeding project, Hongsibao Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) industrial demonstration park project and Changde incubation project have been started. After all are completed and put into operation in the future, the company's production capacity is expected to grow rapidly and its business scale is expected to continue to expand.
Further expand the channels of key customers and speed up the layout of the national market. The company complies with the large-scale development trend of layer breeding and further expands the channels of key customers. In the past 21 years, the company's sales to direct customers accounted for 64.33%, with a year-on-year increase of 23.47 PCTs, of which the sales to Zhengda Group was 374983 million yuan, with a year-on-year significant increase of 197.98%, accounting for 5.25%. The gross profit margin of the company's direct sales channel was 24.04%, up 0.65 PCTs year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was 4.45 PCTs higher than that of the distribution mode, reflecting the company's excellent bargaining power in the key customer channel. Based on the northern region, the company will further expand the traditional breeding market in the south. In the past 21 years, the company's sales revenue in Southwest China was 264381 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 233.91%. At present, the Hailan powder shell layer introduced by the company has successfully passed the examination and approval of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas. In the future, it will be used as the main variety promoted in the southern market. With the steady progress of the company's Changde incubation project, it is expected to basically improve the company's nationwide sales layout. In the long run, under the background of the continuous promotion of large-scale downstream layer breeding, as the leading enterprise in the egg breeding industry, the company is expected to fully benefit from its stable and high-quality chicken seedling supply advantages and prominent sales channel advantages, and continuously improve the market share.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: we expect the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 110 million yuan, 123 million yuan and 175 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.59, 0.66 and 0.93 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to the PE values of 22-24 years, which are 28.22, 25.26 and 17.85 times respectively. It is optimistic that the company's breeding and incubation capacity will continue to expand and the national sales channels will continue to improve, and the market share is expected to gradually increase. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: animal disease risk, commodity chick price fluctuation, the company's capacity expansion is less than expected, etc.
