\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Events
On April 28, the company released the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22 years. In the 21st year, the revenue reached 20.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.5%. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 6.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.7%.
Business analysis
The first quarter had a better start than expected, and the core national cellar led to high growth. The company's performance slightly exceeded previous expectations. The revenue of 21q4 + 22q1 was 12.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.7%, at a steady growth level. Considering: 1) the scale of advance receipts at the end of the first quarter was 1.99 billion yuan, a slight increase of 80 million yuan (+ 4%) year-on-year; 2) The sales revenue of 22q1 is 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.3%, slightly slower than the revenue end; We expect the delivery rhythm to be stable in the first quarter, and the payment collection rhythm will be slightly disturbed by the epidemic. In terms of products: 1) the sales caliber of core single product Guojiao is expected to increase by 30% in 21 years, accounting for about 65% of the revenue, of which the low-grade has a good momentum in North China and other regions; The target growth rate of 22 years is 30% +, and the growth rate of Q1 is expected to be 20% +. At present, the delivery progress is close to 40%, and the high / low payment prices reported by many regions have increased. 2) For the secondary and high-grade, Tequ is matched with the cellar age. The growth rate of Tequ has increased since 21q3, and the growth rate of 22q1 is expected to be 30% +. 3) At the end of the year, the medium and high-grade inventory was + 76% year-on-year, which is expected to be the contribution of the production of Huangyi brewing ecological park, and the medium and long-term volume increase is also guaranteed.
The profitability will be further improved and the cost control will gradually be effective. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21 / 22q1 was 38.5% / 45.6% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.5pct / + 2.3pct. Mainly driven by: 1) the gross profit margin of 22q1 increased by 0.4pct to 86.4%, which is expected to be driven by structural upgrading; 2) The sales expense rate of 22q1 decreased by 2.8pct to 10.7%. The company continued to control fees at the channel side, but the high national cellar rating remained at the level of 920 ~ 930 yuan; 3) The proportion of business tax and surcharges is -2.5pct year-on-year, which is expected to change at a rhythm between quarters.
The company's 22-year plan target is 15%. Considering the equity incentive assessment target, we expect the company to complete the plan with high quality, and the medium and long-term growth center may be 20% +. We are optimistic about the multiple highlights of the company's brand + product + mechanism. In the past 21 years, the volume / price of medium and high-grade alcohol has increased by 25% / 3% at the same time, and the trend of both volume and price has continued; Under the cultivation of high Guojiao brand strength, South China, East China and other markets still have great prospects.
Investment advice
We expect the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 22-24 years to be 25% / 24% / 22% respectively, corresponding to net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 10 / 124 / 15.1 billion; EPS is 6.78/8.40/10.23 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 32 / 25 / 21x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, repeated epidemic risk, structural upgrading less than expected, food safety problems.
