\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 597 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) )
Performance review
On April 28, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 1.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 66.91%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 442 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 110.21%. The performance was in line with expectations.
Business analysis
The company’s product prices have improved significantly year-on-year, and the profit trend is upward. After July 2021, affected by the rise in the price of raw materials and the improvement of product supply and demand pattern, the price of the company’s core products increased, including the price of sucralose products increased from 220000 / ton to 480000 / ton, and now it has dropped to 390000 / ton; The price of Acer honey products has increased from 65000 / ton to 88000 / ton, and now it has dropped to 75000 / ton; The price of Maltol products has increased from 105000 / ton to 140000 / ton, and now it has dropped to 95000 / ton. We believe that the current price of the company’s core products remains basically stable, and with the increase of the market share of the company’s core products, the company’s bargaining power is further enhanced. At present, the company’s product sales are mainly divided into long order sales and market-based sales. The long order sales account for 40-50%, which has ironed the price cycle to a certain extent, and the demand for sweetener products is growing, and the sales volume of the company’s products is also gradually increasing.
The competitive advantage of core products is prominent, and the market share is increasing. At present, the company has a production capacity of 8000 tons of sucralose, ranking first in the world. At the same time, the company plans a 30000 T / a DMF project to provide raw materials for sucralose. In addition, the second phase project of sulfoxide chloride, the core raw material of sucralose, has been started, and the main project has been completed at present. In terms of maltol, the company has 5000 tons of methyl ethyl maltol in the production stage. According to the company’s annual report, the company optimizes the process around the existing products, and expands the R & D reserves of biological fermentation products and other projects.
Investment advice
Considering the correction of the company’s product price, but the release of the company’s new product capacity, we expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1.71 billion, 2.006 billion and 2.325 billion respectively, EPS to be RMB 3.05, 3.56 and 4.15 respectively, and the current market value corresponding to PE to be 12.32x, 10.50x and 9.06x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Product sales are lower than expected; Falling product prices; The company’s production capacity construction and launch progress is less than expected.
