[early trading strategy]
Technically, the Shanghai stock index closed a quasi bareheaded barefoot mid Yang line that rebounded from the bottom, and formed a "Yang Bao Yin" K-line combination with the Yin line of the previous trading day, suggesting that the market has a strong signal in the short term. From the perspective of short cycle, the afternoon market "increased in volume and decreased in volume", which proves that there are signs of capital admission. At present, the 5-day moving average above the Shanghai stock index has been pressed down rapidly. Pay attention to the pressure of the 5-day moving average (2988 points) and the integer mark of 3000 points. Gem refers to the same recovery from the bottom of the positive line, the daily line six consecutive negative announced the end. The difference is that the gem refers to standing on the 5-day moving average ahead of the main board. At present, it has begun to take the lead in covering the downward jump gap formed on Monday, and there has been an obvious large amount in the process of rebound. Therefore, the probability of gem index will reach the bottom before the Shanghai index and rebound.
The market bottomed out on Wednesday. On the one hand, after the rapid decline of the market in the early stage, the short-term oversold is serious, and the oversold rebound market is imminent; On the other hand, the news has improved. The decline in the number of people infected by the epidemic in Shanghai and the high-level intensive statements on the capital market have helped the market to be more popular to a certain extent. Previously, we mentioned that covid-19 epidemic, performance mine and exchange rate depreciation are the three major risk points of the market. From the situation in the past two days, these three risk points have been alleviated to varying degrees, so it is natural for the rebound market to start. From the perspective of long-term layout, the valuation level of major indexes has returned to the historical bottom range, and the risk return ratio has been considerable. However, in the short term, a Zhongyang line is still not enough to change the weak characteristics of the market. Therefore, in terms of operation, it is suggested that investors still need to control their positions. In case of short-term rebound, they can consider cashing in the income appropriately. In the future, it is suggested to focus on the following main lines: first, the main line of "steady growth". Affected by the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places, it will be more difficult to achieve an annual economic growth rate of 5.5%. Fiscal and monetary policies may be further relaxed, focusing on the new and old infrastructure, real estate, banks and other directions that benefit the most. The main line of "steady growth" may become the main line throughout the year; Second, the main line of inflation. U.S. inflation hit a 40 year high, and China's inflation data also rose month by month. At present, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices are rising rapidly. We can pay attention to investment opportunities in seeds, pesticides, fertilizers and other sectors. The midline can focus on investment opportunities for mandatory consumption; Third, pay attention to the oversold rebound opportunities of science and technology growth stocks.
[message side]
1. "Four invariants" to create a stable and predictable institutional environment
International geopolitical conflicts, overseas inflation "exploding", accelerated austerity in Europe and the United States, frequent outbreaks in China... The recent unexpected changes are reflected in all aspects of economic and financial operation, and the capital market is under certain pressure.
2. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is not the driving factor of stock market decline
Recently, some market views believe that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is one of the reasons for the recent decline of the stock market. In this regard, experts said that there is a correlation between the fluctuations of the stock market and the foreign exchange market, but there is no causal relationship. The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is not the main driver of the recent stock market decline. Short term fluctuations in the stock market and foreign exchange market are the result of unexpected changes in the internal and external environment. Foreign capital has not mastered the asset pricing power in China's stock market. The exchange rate of RMB is expected to remain stable in the long term and its asset attraction is expected to remain reasonable.
3. Stabilize the current and long-term infrastructure investment, and accelerate the development
The 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission recently stressed that we should comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system. Experts believe that infrastructure construction investment will be an important starting point for steady growth this year, and the annual growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to reach about 8% or even higher. In the medium and long term, China still has great potential for infrastructure investment, especially in the field of new infrastructure.
4. The market welcomes the repair market, and institutions are optimistic about two main investment lines
On April 27, the A-share market opened low and went high, rebounded sharply, and the Shanghai stock index recovered 2950 points. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index rose 2.49%, 4.37% and 5.52% respectively. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 910 billion yuan, including 422928 billion yuan in Shanghai and 494783 billion yuan in Shenzhen. Data show that on the 27th, the net inflow of funds from the North was 4.359 billion yuan, and the net inflow of main funds from the two cities was 9.332 billion yuan.
