Following yesterday’s retaliatory rebound of a shares, today (April 28) Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are facing shock correction. The stock index opened low in the morning, and then rose in shock. There was a surge in the intraday performance. Near the noon, the stock index dived back, the three major stock indexes weakened further in the afternoon, and the performance of the gem index was particularly tragic.
From the disk point of view, bank stocks failed to protect the market, the industry and concept sectors returned to the decline, and the local profit-making effect plummeted. The performance of coal and lithium battery sectors is relatively outstanding, and the targets such as Baijiu, aerospace and industrial aircraft are also resistant to decline. It is worth mentioning that the pharmaceutical sector is relatively divided, and some hot stocks are strong. As of press time, Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002693) , China Resources Double-Crane Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600062) , Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited(000756) and other daily limits have been raised. Among them, Hainan Shuangcheng Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002693) has achieved three boards and Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited(000756) seven days and five boards.
Guosheng Securities said that near the small and long holiday, the uncertainty of the peripheral market or the rebound will not be achieved overnight. 3000 points is expected to become the first important resistance to test the quality of this round of rebound. It is prudent to catch up before the festival. In terms of investment, it is suggested to maintain a balanced allocation in which growth is slightly greater than value.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
theme I Baijiu
Kaiyuan securities mentioned that it is optimistic that the impact of the epidemic on consumption will be maximized in the second quarter, and the follow-up should converge upward with the rhythm of epidemic control. We believe that when the industry recovers, the market probably favors the epidemic damaged stocks with undervalued value and high prosperity. The logic is that after the opening of the consumption scenario, some industries can have rapid consumption compensation or rebound, and companies with fast growth and good growth may become the target of the market.
The agency further analyzed that the first dimension of the year was Baijiu, mainly high-end and sub high-end Baijiu. Baijiu has a compensatory demand for business banquets in the future. At the same time, it is less affected by the price of raw materials and has strong demand and profit toughness. The impact of the epidemic in the off-season on Baijiu is limited. Some liquor enterprises control the volume and price in the off-season. At the same time, waist products are used as a supplement to the performance growth. The follow-up outlook is upward. The beer sector is optimistic about the enterprise profit elasticity brought by price increase and structural upgrading in the medium term. The short-term epidemic affects sales, but the logic of upgrading continues to be verified. Recovery after the epidemic should be a good choice. The demand for dairy products is stable, the competition has not intensified, and it has high allocation value. Two ideas for condiment: one is to allocate the leader at the end of the long cycle; Second, seize the opportunity of high growth in quarterly performance.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that it is recommended to actively layout: 1) optimize the layout of high-end liquor with little impact on performance / anti risk ability; 2) The target with strong certainty of 22q2 performance growth, good marginal change and reasonable valuation is preferred. The specific elements include: strong business strength and anti risk ability & the main base market is less affected by the epidemic situation & the performance driving force comes from mature products rather than investment promotion & 22q2 still performs well compared with 22q1.
[Topic 2] Medicine
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that at present, domestic covid-19 specific drugs with advanced research and development progress include RdRp inhibitor vv116, azvudine and AR inhibitor prochloramide, while domestic 3clpro inhibitors with the same target as paxlovid are mostly in the approved clinical or preclinical stage. Based on the changes and invariance of pharmaceutical investment, we believe that we should actively grasp the investment opportunities in the direction of innovation and internationalization in the future. In terms of innovative drugs and vaccines, Rongchang Biology (H) is recommended; For CXO, recommend Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) ; In the field of equipment and Life Sciences, it is recommended that Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) ; In terms of innovative cutting-edge technologies, pay attention to unlisted enterprises such as Aibo biology; For domestic consumption, we recommend Jinxin reproduction (H), Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) .
In addition, East Asia Qianhai Securities pointed out that under the influence of high-pressure policies such as centralized purchase and medical insurance negotiation, the market value of China’s innovative pharmaceutical enterprises has generally decreased significantly, causing great pessimism in the market, which may last for a long time, and the short-term correction range will not be too large. However, the value of the configuration of high-quality companies in the industry has gradually become prominent. It is suggested to focus on products with rich product pipelines and high clinical value of first in class and best in class, Leading companies with sufficient cash reserves. Related subject Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology.
Open source securities mentioned that it is optimistic about the rebound opportunity of the consumer medical sector after the resumption of work and production. Including medical services (especially consumer services), traditional Chinese medicine (covid-19 treatment + brand OTC consumption attribute concept), retail pharmacies (the passenger flow to the store is expected to rise after returning to work and production), medical beauty (strong consumption attribute) and other segments.
[Theme 3] coal
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) believes that at this stage, the spot price of coking coal and the sustainability of the performance of key listed companies in the coking coal sector have three supports: 1) demand is expected to continue to recover under the background of “steady growth” superimposed with “moderately advanced infrastructure investment”; 2) Australian coal imports are short-term or difficult to liberalize, the import volume of Outer Mongolia is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the current situation of overseas imports is weak or difficult to improve; 3) The coal mine safety supervision action in the main coking coal producing areas is still ongoing, and it may be difficult for China’s coking coal supply to increase in the short term. Under the triple support, the high performance of key listed companies in the sector is expected to continue, corresponding to the current valuation may still be underestimated.
Kaiyuan Securities said that recently, the performance of many coal enterprises in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the annualized valuation level of most enterprises was only four or five times, with a high margin of safety; In addition, affected by the epidemic, the current demand is very poor, and the epidemic will eventually be controlled. The government is expected to continue to introduce corresponding policies for steady growth, and the demand is expected to remain good; At present, it will be the best stage to buy expected and allocate coal stocks. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities mentioned that combined with the continuous recurrence of the national epidemic after April, the data in April is expected to continue to decline further. As the most upstream energy and resource products, the coal sector is worried about weakening demand under the downward pressure of the economy. In May, the country may usher in a large-scale resumption of work and production, which will drive the significant increase of industrial power consumption and the rapid increase of steel production. After June, the residential power market will gradually enter the peak season, further driving the demand for coal.
Global energy shortage and price inversion have a continuous impact on imports. The conflict in the external situation affects the global energy pattern. The increase in Europe’s alternative demand for coal will continue to push up the global coal price. After the sharp increase in the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal HbA in April, it is estimated that the corresponding arrival price of China is 1925 yuan / ton, and the high price difference will further inhibit the enthusiasm of import and support China’s coal price.
[Topic 4] lithium battery
Anxin securities mentioned that China’s lithium resources have a prominent strategic position and high development certainty. Enterprises deeply involved in China’s resource development or integrated layout may have long-term competitive advantages. (1) In terms of resources, according to USGS, China’s lithium resources account for about 6% of the world. From the perspective of lithium resource distribution, according to GGII, more than 80% of China’s lithium resources are stored in salt lakes and distributed in Qinghai, Tibet and other provinces; Lithium ore resources are concentrated in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Xinjiang and other provinces; Clay resources are enriched in Yunnan, Guizhou and other provinces. (2) At the policy level, the Ministry of industry and information technology has repeatedly proposed to ensure supply and price stability, and lithium resources are highly dependent on foreign countries at this stage. (3) At the level of corporate layout, the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and others also participate in the integrated layout.
Capital Securities said that the policy to promote the resumption of production in the automotive industry chain, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to improve. At present, the epidemic still has a great impact on the demand for energy metals, and the price of lithium and cobalt is under pressure. Driven by the policy, the automotive industry chain in Shanghai is returning to production in an orderly manner. With the gradual restoration of smooth logistics, the impact of the epidemic may weaken, and the demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to recover rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities pointed out that although the epidemic in China is still serious, the resumption of work and production of the manufacturing industry is proceeding in an orderly manner driven by all parties. This week, 70% of the 666 key enterprises in Shanghai have resumed work and production, SAIC, Tesla and other complete vehicle enterprises have completed the offline production of complete vehicles, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) factories have resumed production, and relevant parts supporting enterprises have also resumed work one after another. The Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of communications and other ministries and commissions have jointly issued a voice to ensure smooth logistics and stable supply chain of the industrial chain, so as to support enterprises to resume work and production in an orderly manner. With the resumption of work and production, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the new energy vehicle industry are expected to increase one after another, and the demand for lithium salt in the upstream of the industrial chain will also be marginally improved. In the case of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report, the performance of enterprises in the lithium sector continues to be released significantly. After the sharp correction of the overall sector in the early stage, the annualized valuation is currently in a very low position, with high allocation cost performance. Driven by the favorable recovery of downstream production, it will also benefit the lithium sector to form a rebound.
