Upstream raw materials and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to high commodity prices, while the pressure on China's economic "steady growth" has increased, infrastructure investment has been carried out in advance, and fiscal policy has been continuously strengthened, or boost the demand for coal, steel, industrial metals and oil in the future. The Fed's tight monetary policy in the future may drive the US dollar index higher, and the rising trend of gold price in the future is under pressure. In terms of pork price in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, the current pig production capacity continues to shrink, and the downward trend of production capacity remains unchanged. Under the condition of continuous promotion of the elimination of breeding sows, it is expected that the pig supply may peak around the third quarter of 2022, and the pig price will reach a low level at that time. At present, the reversal of pork price still needs to wait.
Midstream manufacturing sector: the fiscal policy continues to make efforts and the pace of fiscal expenditure is accelerated. At the same time, the government guides and urges local governments to speed up the construction progress of special bond projects and form physical workload as soon as possible. At present, many places have moderately liberalized the purchase and sale restrictions, lowered the threshold for the use of provident fund, and accelerated the approval of house purchase loans. The housing demand in some cities has been released, and the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize. The marginal improvement of real estate policy is superimposed on the continuous development of infrastructure, and the building decoration, building materials and mechanical equipment industries are improving.
Downstream consumption sector: downstream consumption is greatly impacted by the epidemic. According to the latest data released by the Bureau of statistics, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero in March changed from positive to negative. Considering that the problem of car core shortage has not been significantly alleviated and the epidemic situation in many places is still severe, it is expected that the process of consumption recovery is still slow. From the perspective of subdivided industries, the real estate industry with the most significant downturn in the original boom continues to weaken its willingness to start new construction. However, with the marginal easing of real estate policy, it is expected that the real estate boom will rebound. Pay attention to the subsequent commercial housing sales and construction. In addition, the prosperity of food and beverage has also warmed up, the overall food price has continued to fall, and the retail of related products has increased. The subsequent prosperity changes will still depend on the improvement of the epidemic situation in China. In terms of household appliances, the price of raw materials fluctuates at a high level, and the production cost of enterprises will continue to be under pressure, but the production and sales trend is relatively stable.
Other sectors: in the TMT sector, the national film box office dropped significantly in March due to the repeated impact of the epidemic; The industrial added value of communications has a stable trend year-on-year, and the business volume of postal and telecommunications has maintained a rapid growth year-on-year; In terms of electronics, the total amount of fixed asset investment in the electronic information industry continued to increase year-on-year; In terms of computers, the year-on-year growth rate of output fell, and the short trend of supply and demand was weak. In terms of banks, the reduction of reserve requirements and the reduction of reserve ratio will open up the space for bank credit, provide liquidity supply for the market and guide banks to release profits. In terms of securities companies, the current trading data performance is relatively sluggish, but in the medium and long term, the demand for wealth management will continue to increase with the improvement of residents' per capita income and the continuous improvement of the financial system, and the good trend of the securities industry will remain unchanged. In addition, transportation was greatly affected by the epidemic prevention and control, with a large year-on-year decline in the passenger transport index, while the freight transport index fluctuated in a narrow range and the trend was relatively stable. Affected by the high fluctuation of coal prices, the growth rate of traditional thermal power generation has fallen. Driven by the carbon neutralization policy, wind power generation is expected to increase further in the future.
Risk tip: China's epidemic has repeatedly hindered economic development and further increased the downward pressure on the economy; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, driving the high price of bulk commodities, increasing the cost pressure of enterprises, and the profits of industrial manufacturing were continuously compressed.
