On April 25, 2022, there were 32 newly confirmed cases in Beijing, and all staff in major districts and counties in Beijing carried out nucleic acid testing three times a week.
Beijing has newly confirmed cases, the demand for living materials has surged in the short term, and the demand for immediate distribution has increased significantly. From April 22 to 25, 2022, the newly confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia in Beijing were 8, 22, 15 and 32 respectively. Affected by this, there was a surge in the demand for daily necessities in some areas of Beijing, which catalysed a significant increase in the demand for real-time distribution logistics. According to the information released by relevant companies, the take out orders of supermarkets in meituan in Beijing increased by nearly 40% month on month compared with last week, and the online orders of chain supermarkets such as Wumart and Carrefour also increased by about 30% than usual. Meituan shopping announced that from the 24th, the order delivery time in Beijing will be extended to 24 o’clock. At present, the front-line sorting personnel have increased by 70% and the distribution personnel have increased by 50%. SF Beijing invested nearly 5000 Knights per day and completed tens of thousands of orders from supermarkets. It can be seen that under the rebound of the epidemic in China, the phased static control measures are expected to be steadily promoted, which will catalyze the improvement of the online consumption penetration of daily necessities and further strengthen the demand of family residents for real-time distribution logistics.
The scale of China’s real-time distribution market has reached 100 billion yuan, with high growth.
Instant distribution logistics usually refers to the direct end-to-end delivery logistics service with a time limit of less than two hours without warehousing or transit. In the Internet era, service providers usually rely on the way of real-time global scheduling to match the real-time demand and real-time transportation capacity, and quickly respond to the logistics demand put forward by customers from time to time. China’s real-time distribution logistics industry grew rapidly from 2016 to 2020, forming a 100 billion market, and still maintains a growth rate of about 30%. According to the data of iResearch consulting report, the market scale of real-time distribution in 2020 is about 170 billion yuan, about seven times that of 2015, and the CAGR in five years is about 47.9%; The order scale reached 27.9 billion in 2021, about 14 times that of 2015. The industry is currently growing at a relatively fast speed (about 20% – 40% growth level). At present, China’s real-time distribution logistics capacity is mainly divided into two types: one is the third-party logistics service provider, such as SF intra city, flash delivery, etc; The other is platform capacity, such as dada express delivery, meituan distribution, hummingbird ready to serve, daily excellent fresh and so on.
Stimulated by the demand for real-time distribution, the efficiency upgrading of urban front-end warehouse, which plays a supporting role, is expected to accelerate
Since March 2022, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has rebounded and epidemic prevention measures have been continuously increased, resulting in the obstruction of highway trunk logistics and urban distribution to varying degrees. We believe that: in the era of epidemic, the demand for real-time distribution of living materials will show a step-by-step upward trend, and then based on the strategic support thinking of living materials will be gradually strengthened. The optimization and improvement of the front storage network around the urban agglomeration and the improvement of the intelligent level of warehousing and logistics automation are expected to accelerate. Therefore, the improvement of logistics efficiency will also stimulate new investment opportunities.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the investment opportunities of real-time distribution industrial chain.
First, it is suggested to pay attention to the third-party transportation capacity of real-time distribution Shunfeng City, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , dada group and the transportation capacity related targets of fresh food platform; Second, it is suggested to pay attention to JD logistics, which has the ability to improve the warehouse distribution supply chain service, Transfar Zhilian Co.Ltd(002010) , which is committed to promoting the digital transformation of road freight, and Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) , which provides comprehensive solutions for intelligent warehousing and logistics.
Risk warning: the covid-19 epidemic continues to rebound and the logistics demand is less than expected.
