Analysis framework of fund operation of entity departments and operation results of the first quarter. The capital sources of entity departments (non-financial enterprises and residents) mainly include loans, corporate bonds, non-standard and other financing, net fiscal expenditure and foreign exchange. The destination of funds mainly includes deposits in the physical sector, cash and non bank deposits formed after financial investment. From the data of the first quarter of 2022, the financing demand of the physical sector is weak, especially the medium and long-term financing of residents and enterprises. Many funds are retained in the form of residents’ deposits after operation, and the proportion of time deposits has increased, which also shows that residents’ willingness to invest and consume is not strong. The focus of follow-up policies is to boost the confidence of various market players.
Financing end (source of funds): weak financing demand of residents; The short-term financing of new enterprises has increased significantly, but the medium and long-term financing demand of enterprises is poor. (1) Residential sector: in the first quarter, new residential loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.1% of the total new loans, at a historical low. Among them, the new residents’ short-term loans and medium and long-term loans were 194.3 billion yuan and 1.07 trillion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease, which was mainly dragged down by the sharp decline of the real estate market, the poor performance of the capital market and the decline of consumption willingness. (2) Enterprise sector: in the first quarter, new enterprise financing was 8.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.34 trillion yuan year-on-year. Among them, the short-term financing and medium and long-term financing of new enterprises were 3.52 trillion yuan and 4.92 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 2.58 trillion yuan and a decrease of 241 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of medium and long-term financing stock of enterprises has continued to decline since the second quarter of last year. Enterprise financing funds are mainly invested in infrastructure, manufacturing, Pratt & Whitney microenterprises and other fields.
Deposit side (capital destination): Residents’ deposits have increased significantly, and time deposits have increased significantly, reflecting the weakening of residents’ expectations for the economy. In the first quarter, the net deposit of enterprises increased by about 6.55 trillion yuan, indicating that the net deposit of enterprises to residents increased by only about 2.86 trillion yuan. In the first quarter, residents’ deposits increased more than seasonally, and the proportion of time deposits increased, reflecting residents’ low willingness to invest and consume, which is also a reflection of residents’ poor economic expectations.
How to understand the economy: in the first quarter, the financing willingness of enterprises and residents was weak, steady growth was still in the early stage of credit easing, and policies are expected to be further strengthened in the future. The sharp decline in the real estate boom is an important factor impacting the financing needs of residents and enterprises. Behind it is the cautious attitude of various market subjects such as lending financial institutions, real estate enterprises and potential buyers. Infrastructure has become an important starting point for this round of steady growth. Driven by the sharp rebound in infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment has also stabilized and rebounded slightly, and economic growth still shows some resilience. It is expected that the economy is expected to stabilize and rebound in the future as the steady growth policy continues to increase and boost confidence.
Investment advice: maintain the “over allocation rating” and select individual stocks. At the stage of economic stabilization and recovery, banks have better investment opportunities. For individual stocks, first, recommend Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , which benefits from the main line of steady growth; Second, for small and medium-sized banks with good regional economy, it is suggested to pay attention to Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) and Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) .
Risk tip: repeated epidemics and less than expected steady growth policies have led to lower than expected economic recovery.
