\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 838 Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) )
Matters:
Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The company achieved revenue of 17.89 billion yuan and 4.84 billion yuan in 21 years and 22q1 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 22.5% and 17.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.83 billion yuan and 2.15 billion yuan in 21 and 22q1 respectively, with a corresponding year-on-year growth rate of 30.0% and 28.8%. Roe in 21 years was 17.60%, 1.66 PCT higher than that in 20 years, and 22q1 annualized roe18 32%, an increase of 1.96 PCT over the same period in 21 years. At the end of 21, the total assets were 768.3 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% over the end of 20, and at the end of 22q1, the total assets were 837.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0% over the beginning of the year. The profit distribution plan of the company in 2021 is: it is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 6.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 29.06%.
Ping An View:
The profit performance is bright, and the scale drives the rapid growth of revenue. The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years and 22q1 increased by 30.0% and 28.8% respectively year-on-year, which was further higher than that in the first three quarters of 21 years (YoY + 22.2%), and maintained strong growth for two consecutive quarters. We believe that it is due to the steady growth of revenue and the release of provisions since the fourth quarter. The company’s 21-year and 22q1 revenue increased by 22.5% and 17.6% year-on-year respectively (vs + 26.0%, 21q1-q3), still maintaining a high growth rate. We believe that thanks to the rapid growth of net interest income driven by the rapid investment on the asset side, the company’s 21-year and 22q1 net interest income increased by 21.9% and 19.4% year-on-year, accounting for about 80% of the company’s revenue. In addition, the company’s intermediate income continued to grow at a high speed under the 20-year low base. The net income of handling charges and commissions increased by 45.5% and 29.0% (vs + 45.3%, 21q1-q3) respectively in 21 years and 22q1, which was ahead of comparable peers. We judged that it was mainly due to the high increase in the income of wealth management and asset management business (YoY + 71.1%), but from the absolute proportion of the net income of handling charges and commissions of 3.9% (accounting for the proportion of revenue, 22q1), There is still much room for improvement in the company’s revenue.
The interest rate spread narrowed and the capital negative ends expanded at a high speed. The company’s 21-year net interest margin was 2.13% (vs + 2.11%, 21h), which rebounded slightly. However, from the first quarter, we calculated that the company’s 22q1 single quarter annualized net interest margin was 1.94%, with a narrow trend of interest margin recovery. We judged that it was still mainly dragged down by the asset side. From the annual report, the asset side pricing is still down. The company’s 21-year interest bearing asset yield is 4.32% (vs + 4.34%, 21h), of which the loan yield is down 3bp to 5.03% compared with 21h, but it is still maintained at a high profit level. The cost of debt side remained stable. The cost ratio of interest paying debt in 21 years was 2.17% (vs + 2.17%, 21h), of which the cost ratio of deposit was 1.98% (vs + 1.98%, 21h), which was flat compared with the first half of 21 years, showing a stabilizing trend and still at the leading level of comparable peers, reflecting the company’s strong ability to negotiate the price of deposits.
In terms of scale, assets maintained rapid expansion. At the end of 21q4 and 22q1, the total assets of the company increased by 17.8% and 17.4% year-on-year respectively, and the loan growth rate reached 37.2% and 33.4% respectively, leading the comparable peers and faster than the growth rate of total assets for two consecutive quarters, becoming a strong support for the asset side. The debt side performed well. The proportion of deposits in liabilities increased from 76.0% at the end of 21 to 76.8% at the end of 22q1. The proportion of deposits ranked the top among listed urban commercial banks. Deposits at the end of 21q4 and 22q1 increased by 22.1% and 22.4% respectively year-on-year. The growth rate was high and steadily rising, reflecting a strong debt side advantage.
The generation of non-performing assets is at a low level, and the quality of assets continues to improve. At the end of the year, the company’s non-performing assets ratio continued to decline by 98.91% compared with Q1 at the end of the year, and the non-performing assets ratio continued to decline by 98.7% compared with Q1 at the end of the year. We estimate that the non-performing rate of the company in 21 years is 0.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 41bp, and the non-performing rate is at an absolute low level, maintaining the leading position in the industry. From the perspective of forward-looking indicators, the company’s concern rate at the end of 22q1 decreased by 16bp to 0.45% compared with the beginning of the year, falling to a historical low. On the whole, the performance of the company’s asset quality continued to improve. The provision coverage level of the company has been continuously improved. The provision coverage rates of 21 years and 22q1 are 403% (+ 15%, QoQ) and 436% (+ 33%, QoQ) respectively. The allocation and loan ratio of 22q1 is 3.95%, which is flat month on month, and the risk offset ability is further consolidated.
Investment suggestion: enjoy the regional resource endowment and be optimistic about the rise of valuation Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) as an urban commercial firm rooted in Chengdu, the strategy of Chengdu Chongqing double city economic circle is upgraded, and the future development potential of the company is worth looking forward to. In April, the company’s 8 billion yuan convertible bonds were successfully listed, and the replenishment of capital can effectively support the company’s scale expansion. Considering the continuous improvement of the company’s asset quality, we raised the company’s profit forecast for 22 and 23 years and added a new 24-year profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s EPS for 22-24 years will be 2.67/3.16/3.73 yuan respectively (the original forecast value of 22 / 23 is 2.44/2.89 yuan respectively), and the corresponding profit growth rate will be 23.0% / 18.5% / 18.1% (the original forecast value of 22 / 23 is 18.9% / 18.5% respectively). At present, the company’s share price corresponds to the Pb of 22-24 years, which is 1.1x/0.9x/0.8x respectively. Considering the growth and asset quality advantages brought by the company’s regional resource endowment, we are optimistic about the continuation and rising space of the company’s valuation premium and maintain the “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic downturn leads to higher than expected pressure on asset quality of the industry. 2) The decline in interest rates led to a narrower than expected industry interest margin. 3) The increase of cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises leads to the rise of credit risk.
