\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 35 Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) )
Performance review
The non parent company announced that the gross profit of 2023 was RMB 2.7 billion, and the net profit of 2023 was RMB 2.72 billion, with a net profit of RMB 2.7 billion deducted from the parent company. 22q1 revenue was 858 million yuan, a month on month increase of + 3.6%, net profit attributable to parent company 130 million yuan, a month on month increase of + 13%, net profit not attributable to parent company 140 million yuan deducted, a month on month increase of + 27.3%, gross profit margin of 27.2%, a month on month increase of + 5%.
Business analysis
The performance exceeded expectations and benefited from negative price transmission. The company shipped 59000 tons in 2021, with an average price of 32000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10000 yuan / ton compared with the average price in 2020. Among them, the shipment of 21q4 was about 19800 tons, up 26.8% month on month compared with 21q3, and the average price was about 36000 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the company's 22q1 negative electrode shipment is about 20000 tons, with a slight increase month on month, the average price per ton is about 3800039000 / ton, the net profit per ton is about 6000 yuan / ton, and the month on month is + 15000 yuan / ton, mainly due to the average price of negative electrode, which is about + 9% month on month. At the same time, the company's 21q4 has a relatively low net profit per ton due to the provision of relevant expenses at the end of the year.
The newly added graphitized Q2 is gradually released, and the self supply rate of graphitized Q2 is expected to be maintained throughout the year. At present, the company has a graphitization capacity of 35000 tons. The new annual output of 30000 tons of lithium battery cathode materials and 45000 tons of graphitized Q2 in Guizhou is expected to climb production, 15000 tons of new energy collection materials and graphitized q2-q3 are expected to gradually climb production, the annual negative electrode shipment is expected to reach 110000 tons, the negative electrode graphitized output is expected to contribute 60000 tons, and the self supply rate is expected to exceed 50%. In terms of integration, the company is expected to form 225000 tons of graphitization capacity corresponding to 277000 tons of negative electrode capacity from the end of 22 to the beginning of 23. The capacity scale and self supply rate of graphitization are compared with the first-line leaders in the industry (more than 70%) and the layout of upstream petroleum coke raw materials.
Binding Chinese head customers, overseas is expected to expand. The company has established joint ventures with Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to provide channel guarantee for the released production capacity. Overseas companies have entered ski, and the market space is expected to be further opened in the future as the company increases its overseas customers.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The company takes the lead in Integration & new lithium salts, additives and iron phosphate contribute to the profit increment in large quantities. We adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 750 million yuan, 1.26 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 104, 1.74 and 2.35 yuan and corresponding PE of 23.3, 13.9 and 10.3 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Lower than expected risks in downstream demand, deterioration of industrial competition pattern, lower than expected risks in company capacity construction, lower than expected risks in new customer expansion, lifting of restricted shares and exchange risks.
