\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 653 Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 2.77 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 350 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 40 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.9%.
The R & D system of innovative drugs has taken shape, and the seeds of innovative drugs are ripe. From the imitation research and development of specialty drugs in 2004, to the imitation research and development of me too / me better for mature targets in the Chinese market in 2012, to the international cutting-edge development and introduction cooperation from 2019, the innovative drug research and development system of the company's deep cultivation of specialty drugs is becoming more and more mature. The company has abundant R & D pipelines and has gradually entered the harvest period. At present, the fastest progress is hsk-3486, which is a propofol me better drug, and some indications have been approved for listing; Hsk-7653 is a long-acting DPP-4 inhibitor administered once every two weeks. At present, it is in phase III clinical and the progress is relatively fast; Hsk-16149 is a pregabalin me better drug, which is used in the field of diabetes and herpes zoster neuralgia. It is currently in phase III of clinical practice. With the gradual listing of the company's innovative drugs, the company is expected to enter a new situation of development.
Hsk-3486 is a heavy innovative drug in the field of anesthesia, which is expected to become a heavy variety. Hsk-3486 is the product with the fastest development progress. As a heavy innovative drug in the field of anesthesia, it is expected to replace propofol in the future. At present, the indications of gastroenteroscopy of hsk-3486 were approved to be listed in China in December 2020, and the induction of general anesthesia was also approved to be listed in February 2021. Fiberoptic bronchoscopy, anesthesia maintenance and ICU sedation are in NDA status and are expected to be listed in 2022. At the same time, hsk-3486 has opened phase III clinical in the United States, which is expected to open the international market in the future. In 2021, hsk-3486 achieved an income of more than 60 million yuan and entered the national medical insurance catalogue through negotiation. It is expected to start in large quantities in 2022.
The varieties of generic drugs have been continuously enriched and the structure has been continuously optimized. In recent years, the company's new generic products have been listed continuously, the income structure has been gradually improved, and the proportion of parenteral nutrition, antibiotics and other products has continued to decline. At present, the company focuses on the research and development of high-end generic drugs in the fields of liver digestion, cardio cerebrovascular, diabetes, antibiotics and skin medication, which is expected to drive the company's generic drugs to maintain steady growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's innovative drugs have entered the harvest stage, and more than indications of heavy anesthetic hsk-3486 have been gradually approved for listing, which is expected to contribute to greater performance flexibility. At the same time, the company has rich reserves of innovative varieties and sufficient motivation for long-term performance growth. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.42 yuan, 0.51 yuan and 0.63 yuan, corresponding to 31 times, 26 times and 21 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: sales are less than expected; R & D is less than expected risk.
