\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 19.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%. Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 435 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6%. The company also released the first quarterly report of 2022. 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.710 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.03%.
Key investment points
21 years ended successfully, and the proportion of medium and high-end products increased. The company achieved revenue of 19.971 billion yuan and 2.714 billion yuan respectively in 21 / 21q4, a year-on-year increase of + 42.8 / – 24.9%. In the past 21 years, the company’s brand potential has been further focused, and the blue and white series has achieved high growth throughout the year. By product, 21 / 21q4 Fen Liquor achieved a revenue of 17.920/2.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.9 / – 33.1%; The revenue of series liquor reached 638 / 149 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.7 / + 0.0%; The revenue of prepared liquor reached 1.250379 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 91.4 / + 111.4%. According to channel feedback, the growth rate of blue and white 20 in the whole year was fast, the performance of Fuxing version was relatively stable, and the growth rate of Q4 slowed down, mainly due to the company’s increased control over goods. Bofen’s annual revenue growth is expected to slow down significantly year-on-year due to the company’s active control of goods in the second half of the year; Under the background of laobaifen 21q4 high base, the income growth has slowed down, and the income growth in Panama is relatively stable. In terms of sub regions, the revenue of 21 / 21q4 in the province was 8.070/1.215 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 34.6 / – 10.0%, and the revenue outside the province was 11.738/1.467 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.5 / – 33.3%. The proportion of revenue outside the province (Accounting for the total operating revenue) in 21 years was 58.77%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.65 PTCs. The average growth rate of market revenue in the south of the Yangtze River reached 60%.
The company achieved a revenue of 10.53 billion yuan in 22q1, a year-on-year increase of + 43.6%. Among them, the revenue outside the province was 6.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52.5%, accounting for 62.93%. As of 22q1, the total contract liabilities of the company amounted to 3.881 billion yuan, which decreased month on month, but remained high. The company’s 22q1 has made a successful start under the background of high base, in which the main increment is contributed from January to February. It is estimated that the revenue of blue and white series accounts for more than 40%, and the revival version also has a large-scale growth.
The product structure continued to upgrade, and the gross profit margin of 21 years / 22q1 increased steadily. In 21 years, the gross profit margin of the company’s main business was 74.91%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.76 PCTs, mainly due to the upgrading of product structure. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate were 15.28/5.84 / – 0.17% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.45 / – 1.94 / + 0.32pcts. The net interest rate was 26.61%, year-on-year + 4.60pcts, and the profitability of the company continued to improve. In the past 21 years, the number of dealers of the company increased from 628 to 3524, mainly due to the increase of dealers outside the province. The company’s gross profit margin of 22q1 was 74.75%. Affected by the large-scale growth of Qinghua 20 and Fuxing version, the gross profit margin was + 1.22pcts year-on-year. In the first quarter, the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio was 11.15% / 2.56% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -6.80 / -0.63pcts. The decrease in sales expenses was mainly caused by the impact of epidemic control and the decrease in expenses of Bofen. The overall profitability of the company improved steadily.
In the future, high-end & nationalization will continue to seek benign and sustainable growth. Looking forward to 22 years, the company will continue to improve its product structure. It is expected that Qinghua 20 will maintain high growth, Qinghua 30 revival version will achieve large-scale volume on the basis of stable price, Panama and laobaifen will penetrate into the market around Shanxi, and Bofen will continue to control the volume. In the past 21 years, the company carried out the investment promotion and distribution of Qinghua 30 revival version, focusing on the cultivation of consumers and the creation of atmosphere, and strengthened the investment in marketing and promotion expenses. We believe that as the leader of fragrance, the company has room for continued high-end development, and the blue and white 30 revival version still has a large volume space in the 1000 yuan price band. At present, the company’s brand potential remains the same. The company continues to promote nationalization and continuously improve the market share in the south of the Yangtze River. The market strategy is clear and clear, and there is still a period of benign and sustainable growth in the future. According to the channel survey feedback, the payment collection progress of 22q1 is generally about 35%. On the whole, under the disturbance of the epidemic since March, the company has fully coordinated the epidemic prevention and control and production and operation, which has little impact on the annual performance.
Investment suggestion: due to the repeated superposition of the epidemic and concerns about the economic downturn, the company’s share price has been adjusted in the early stage. At present, the company’s rapid development momentum continues, and the valuation has strong support. Combined with the latest announcement, we slightly adjusted the company’s profit forecast: from 2022 to 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 264.76/333.78/420.14 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32.6% / 26.1% / 25.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.669/10.63/13.064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.3% / 31.2% / 29.8%; The corresponding EPS is 6.29/8.25/10.71 yuan respectively. Maintain the company’s “Buy-A” rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation is repeated, and the growth of the industry may be less than expected; Competition in the secondary high-end price belt intensifies, and the income of blue and white series may be lower than expected; In the process of promoting the nationalization of the company, the market expansion outside the province may be less than expected.
