\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Matters:
\u3000\u30001. The company released the annual report of 2021: the annual revenue was 30.652 billion yuan (+ 101.79%), the attributable net profit was 10.209 billion yuan (+ 209.23%), and the attributable net profit after deduction was 10.184 billion yuan (+ 206.48%). It is basically consistent with the previous performance express. Dividend plan: 6.0 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
\u3000\u30002. The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: Q1 achieved a revenue of 8.841 billion yuan (+ 125.16%), a net profit of 1.923 billion yuan (+ 104.95%), and a net profit of 1.896 billion yuan (+ 101.15%) after deduction. The previous forecast range is above the median.
Ping An View:
Both self-produced and agent vaccines have made great efforts to achieve high growth in 2021
In 2021, the company's self-produced + agent products will make great efforts to help the company achieve rapid growth. The revenue of independent products reached 9.697 billion yuan (+ 707.61%), of which the subsidiary longkema achieved an annual revenue of 8.419 billion yuan. Considering that the preventive micro card was approved to be listed within the year and is still in the sales preparation period, it is estimated that longkema's revenue mainly comes from covid-19 vaccine. It is estimated that the traditional self-produced vaccine has achieved a certain increase when the conventional vaccine vaccination is compressed.
The annual revenue of agent vaccine was 20.931 billion yuan (+ 49.99%). Based on the batch issuance data, it is estimated that the annual sales of HPV vaccine and RV vaccine of the two heavy products are about 17 million and 7 million respectively. As the proportion of 9-valent HPV vaccine in the sales increased, the gross profit margin of the company's agent vaccine decreased.
The core products were further expanded, and the company's Q1 performance was ideal
In 2022q1, the epidemic situation in many places in China has been repeated, which has a negative impact on the transportation and vaccination of vaccines. Under this unfavorable factor, the company still achieved rapid growth during the reporting period. We speculate that the main reasons include two points: (1) covid-19 vaccine has not been sold in China in the same period of last year, so the revenue base is small; (2) Combined with the lower gross profit margin of Q1 (33.67%, - 7.28pp), it is estimated that the sales of HPV vaccine and other agent products have achieved further volume in the reporting period. The number of batches of 2022q1 HPV vaccine has increased significantly. For HPV vaccine in short supply for a long time, the increase of product supply can soon be reflected in the income side.
From the perspective of the whole year, we estimate that the sales of HPV vaccine can exceed 23 million, and RV vaccine is expected to further grow on the basis of last year
A number of self-developed products are in the late clinical stage, and the tuberculosis market is ready to go
The company has many self-developed products. After years of research and development, many products have entered the later stage of clinical practice. Among them, 15 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine, MRC-5 crazy vaccine and 4-valent meningococcal conjugate vaccine are potential varieties with huge market and insufficient competition. It is expected that these varieties will be launched successively in the next 1-3 years to provide new growth momentum. The micro card for prevention and its supporting EC reagent approved in mid-2021 have won the bid to hang up the network in 25 provincial units, and will soon enter the mass production stage. There are a large number of TB carriers in China. Wechat series can effectively help tuberculosis control. The company will work together through the two channels of disease control hospital and school physical examination to quickly promote the wide use of micro card series.
Maintain a "recommended" rating. The company is selling a variety of heavy products, with leading channel capacity in the industry, rich products under research, and a number of products have entered the later stage of research and development. The company recently launched the employee stock ownership plan, demonstrating its confidence and determination to further expand and strengthen. Considering the sales changes of covid-19 vaccine, micro card and other products, adjust and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the EPS in 20222024 will be 4.60, 4.88 and 5.13 yuan (formerly 3.81 and 5.10 yuan in 20222023), maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the approval time of new products on the market is uncertain. If the approval progress is less than expected, it may lead to large-scale lag; 2) If the company's products fail to complete the sales task due to the promotion or production failure, it may affect the business growth; 3) Vaccine products have a wide audience. If there are negative events in the industry, it may lead to public distrust of the vaccine, and then affect the market demand of the vaccine.
