\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 076 Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) )
Event: 1) on April 27, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 644 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 115 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 105 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.96%. 2) The company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 134 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.22%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.09 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.45%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 12.68 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.64%.
Revenue grew steadily in 2021, the proportion of cdmo increased steadily, and many factors disturbed 2022q1. Quarter by quarter, the revenue of 2021q4 was 194 million yuan (year-on-year + 0.96%), and that of 2022q1 was 134 million yuan (year-on-year – 19.22%). We believe that the quarterly fluctuations in revenue are mainly due to: ① the global epidemic disturbs logistics and terminal demand, and there is less delivery and order confirmation in 2021q4 and 2022q1; ② Most of the company’s cdmo are upstream key intermediates. Due to the impact of customer production scheduling and the rhythm of terminal project declaration, the order confirmation slows down slightly; ③ In the first quarter of 2021, customers worried about the repeated epidemic and the sharp increase in demand, resulting in more shipments in 2021q1 and a large base. We expect that with the gradual positive progress of covid-19 specific drugs and vaccines, the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation and the continuous promotion of customer projects, the company’s revenue is expected to return to the track of rapid growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 26.81 million yuan (year-on-year – 32.22%), and the non net profit deducted in 2021q4 was 39.67 million yuan (year-on-year + 7.73%). We believe that the higher growth rate of non deduction is mainly due to the change in the recognition method of non recurring profits and losses such as government subsidies, and less government subsidies in 2021q4.
C (d) Mo + independent product, two wheel drive, long-term growth can be expected: 1) C (d) Mo: steady growth of revenue and continuous expansion of production capacity. In 2021, the revenue reached 511 million yuan (+ 23.82%), and 25 new project process R & D were completed, of which 17 projects achieved factory scale-up for the first time. In terms of production capacity, Jiande factory started the construction of phase II GMP workshop of about 400000 liters, and Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) factory completed the production expansion of apc180 project, expanding the production capacity to 2.5 times. We expect that with the gradual completion of business and the continuous expansion of production capacity, cdmo revenue is expected to maintain rapid growth; 2) Independent products: the pipeline under research continues to advance, and the approval of new products is expected to bring new growth momentum. In 2021, the sales of independent products decreased to 131 million yuan (- 14.11%). We expect that the main reasons are: 1) bivalirudin and others will affect the production rhythm due to the transformation of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) workshop, and the supply is expected to recover gradually after the transformation is completed; 2) Traditional oseltamivir and other influenza drugs are due to the proper control of the national epidemic and the slowdown in demand. However, it is worth noting that the research and development of independent products continued to be promoted in 2021. ① in terms of API, the registration application of fluvistran in China and the DMF application of octreotide acetate and smegliptide were completed; ② In terms of preparations, etibatide injection obtained the drug registration certificate of CDE, and completed the registration application of bivalirudin, olmesartan axetil and amlodipine tablets for injection in China. ③ In terms of innovative drug research and development, GLP-1 receptor agonist submitted the pre ind registration application, and the compound patent of GLP-1 / GIP double target innovative drug spn007 was authorized.
Profit forecast and Valuation: considering that the company will be greatly affected by the epidemic in 2021 and its performance is expected to recover gradually with the recovery of the epidemic, we expect the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 to be 776 million yuan, 979 million yuan and 1.246 billion yuan respectively (before adjustment, the revenue of 20222023 will be 790 million yuan and 1.002 billion yuan), with growth rates of 20.54%, 26.08% and 27.33% respectively; Considering that the company is expected to vigorously promote the construction of BD in 2022 and the sales expense ratio is expected to increase rapidly, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 to be 142 million yuan, 189 million yuan and 256 million yuan respectively (150 million and 200 million yuan before adjustment in 20222023), with growth rates of 23.04%, 33.03% and 35.71% respectively. The company’s track is of high quality, the advantages of C (d) Mo technology platform are significant, and the pipeline under research is abundant. In the future, it is expected to bring long-term growth through C (d) Mo + independent product two wheel drive and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: the public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update, and the loss of core technicians; Risks of raw material supply and price rise, environmental protection and safety production risks; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
