\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 541 Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) )
Key investment points
The sales volume of 22q1 was under pressure, and the revenue increased by 7% year-on-year. The company achieved a revenue of 3.519 billion yuan / yoy + 7.03% in 22q1. Considering that the output of 22q1 increased slightly by 2.2% and the cost per ton of steel increased significantly compared with the same period of 21 years (the average price of 21q4-22q1 increased by nearly 19% compared with 20q4-21q1), assuming that the average processing fee per ton in the interval remains relatively stable, we speculate that the decline of the company’s 22q1 sales may be due to the slowdown of logistics and transportation and the slow pace of delivery under the prevention and control of the epidemic.
Decline in gross profit and net profit
Decline in gross profit margin: the company’s 22q1 gross profit margin was 11.46%, down 1.55pct year-on-year and 1.28pct month on month. According to our analysis, on the one hand, the company’s production capacity increased from 3.2 million tons at the end of 20 to 4.2 million tons at the end of 21, and the total depreciation of 22q1 increased compared with the same period. On the other hand, the sales volume of 22q1 was under pressure, driving the ton cost to increase compared with the same period.
The expense rate is better: the expense rate during 22q1 is 5.88%, with a year-on-year / month on month decrease of 0.87pct/0.77pct respectively. Split: the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense ratio of 22q1 is 0.65% / 1.75% / 1.51% / 1.97% respectively, which is -0.18 / – 0.02 / + 0.51 / – 1.18pct respectively compared with 21q1 and -0.31 / + 0.35 / + 0.79 / – 1.59pct respectively compared with 21q4. The sales expense rate decreased year-on-year and month on month. The continuous expansion of the company’s production capacity led to the steady improvement of enterprise management energy efficiency.
Net profit attributable to the parent company: RMB 229.7 billion / deduction of net profit attributable to the parent company: RMB 2.68-yo billion / net profit attributable to the parent company: RMB 2.6 billion. The current non recurring profit and loss is mainly composed of government subsidies and asset disposal income: the government subsidy income recognized in the current period is 39 million yuan, a decrease of 31 million yuan compared with 21q1, the proportion in the net profit attributable to the parent company is reduced from 38% of 21q1 to 23%, and the current non current asset disposal income is 54 million yuan.
Increased capital expenditure, strengthened ability to undertake large orders, high performance and strong growth certainty
In the short term, the newly signed contract amount has maintained a steady growth, and the high growth of performance is guaranteed under the expectation of rush work after the epidemic. 22q1 company’s newly signed sales contracts amounted to RMB 6.013 billion, an increase of 14.71% over the same period in 2021. The number of large orders with RMB 100 million or more tons increased to 17, totaling 339000 tons, reaching the highest value in a single quarter; In the medium and long term, the company’s capacity advantage is expected to continue to consolidate. 22. The production capacity is expected to increase to 5 million tons by the end of the year. 22q1 capital expenditure was 457 million yuan, accounting for 28% of the annual capital expenditure in 21 years, which remained high. According to our analysis, it was mainly due to the company’s anchoring of the target of reaching 5 million tons of annual production capacity by the end of 22 years and steadily promoting the construction progress of relevant base projects. With the “three board axe” of cost refinement management and capacity advantages, the company’s large order delivery capacity is expected to be further strengthened and continue to build competitive barriers.
Profit forecast and valuation
On the premise of fully considering the possible changes in the cost of the company’s main business in the future, we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 27.280, 33.652 and 40.868 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 39.79%, 23.36% and 21.44%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 14.51, 1.784 and 2.178 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.18%, 22.95% and 22.09%, corresponding to EPS of 273, 3.36 and 4.10 yuan. The current price corresponding to PE is 15.0, 12.2 and 10.0 times. Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of steel structure fabricated buildings is lower than expected; Steel price fluctuation; The growth rate of fixed asset investment was lower than expected.