\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 088 China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) )
The coal & electricity business made joint efforts, and the performance increased significantly in the first quarter. Maintain “buy” rating
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022. Q1 achieved an operating revenue of 83.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 18.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 18.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60.7%. Benefiting from the rise of coal price, electricity sales and electricity sales price, the company’s performance increased significantly year-on-year. Under the energy reform, the benchmark price of the annual long-term coal association will be raised, and the coal price center of the company may be moved upward. It is expected to continue to have high profits, and the stable high dividend and high dividend rate highlight the long-term investment value. We raised the forecast for 20222024 and estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 would be 65.12/698.6/727.9 billion yuan (the previous value was 59.41/612.7/62.12 billion), a year-on-year increase of + 29.5% / 7.3% / 4.2%; EPS is 3.28/3.52/3.66 yuan, corresponding to 8.7/8.1/7.8 times the current share price PE. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Coal prices rose sharply, and the profit of coal business increased sharply
The output structure is optimized and the sales structure is stable. In 2022, Q1 company achieved commercial coal output of 808000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 3.6%; The coal sales volume was 1.057 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of – 8.4%, of which the annual long-term coal sales volume was 544000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.8%. The annual long-term coal sales volume accounted for 51.5% of the total sales volume, with a year-on-year increase of + 9pct. The decrease in the amount of purchased coal is the main reason for the slight decline in the total sales volume. The severe situation of ensuring supply leads to the reduction of coal sources available in the market. At the same time, the coal price is rising, and it is difficult to ensure the profit of trade. Therefore, the company optimizes the sales structure to prevent profit erosion. Price: the average price of long-term cooperation in Q1 (excluding tax) was 516 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 28.4%; The monthly average price of long-term cooperation was 787 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 36.9%; The comprehensive average price was 624 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 31%. The profitability per ton of coal was improved. The cost per ton of coal was 414 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 11.43%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 228 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 95.7%; The gross profit margin was 35%, with a year-on-year increase of + 11pct and a month on month increase of + 2pct. Due to the company’s active participation in supply guarantee, the coal output increased, and the cost rise was mainly due to the impact of labor costs and outsourcing stripping fees. However, the increase of coal price was much higher than the cost increase, and the profitability of self-produced coal was enhanced.
Electricity sales & prices rose at the same time, and the profit of power business rose sharply
The sales volume of power business increased significantly, with Q1 power generation / sales + 25.7% / + 26.1% year-on-year, and the average utilization hours were 1234 hours, up + 4.8% year-on-year. The selling price rose, and the selling price in Q1 was 411 yuan / MWh, a year-on-year increase of + 21.6%. The increase of coal-fired cost dragged down the gross profit margin. The cost of Q1 kwh was 390 yuan / MWh, and the gross profit margin of power generation was 16%, year-on-year -1.7pct. Overall, the profit of power business was affected by the increase of coal-fired cost, but the selling price and volume increased simultaneously, and the gross profit of power business increased by 37.3% year-on-year.
Both coal and electricity businesses have increased, and the orderly release may further increase the performance
Coal business: according to the company’s announcement, the company’s Shenshan open pit mine, huangyuchuan coal mine and qinglongsi coal mine have approved the increase of production capacity, with an increase of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , 300 and 1 million tons / year respectively. Power business: according to the company’s announcement, unit 2 of Fujian Luoyuanwan project has successfully passed the trial operation and will be officially handed over to commercial operation. So far, two 1000 MW ultra supercritical coal-fired generating units of the project have been put into operation, and the annual power generation is expected to reach 8 billion kwh.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; The annual benchmark price of Changxie coal was lowered; Rising mining costs
