\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 680 Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) )
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 252 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.97%; Deduct non net profit of 244 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.20%; EPS3. 07 yuan. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 77 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.55%; Deduct non net profit of 77 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.16%.
The production and sales of photovoltaic adhesive film increased rapidly, and the profit decreased due to the rise of raw material prices. In 2021, the company added Taizhou and Shangrao production bases, and the production capacity expanded steadily. By the end of the year, the production capacity of photovoltaic adhesive film was about 600 million square meters, and the annual sales volume was 246 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 51.26%. Due to the rising price of EVA particles, the company timely transmitted the product price, and the annual average shipment price was 12.41 yuan / flat, a year-on-year increase of 38.11%. The rapid growth of revenue was driven by the simultaneous rise of volume and price. The annual revenue of photovoltaic adhesive film was 3.052 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.91%. However, with the rise of raw materials, the unit material cost reached 9.80 yuan / Ping, a year-on-year increase of 60.81%; The ramp up of the company’s new production capacity also led to an increase in manufacturing costs, with a unit manufacturing cost of 0.76 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of 28.47%, so the overall profitability of the company decreased. In 2021, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic adhesive film was 14.92%, a decrease of about 9pp compared with 2020, and the net profit per unit was about 1 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 25%.
Quarterly, the average shipping price of 21q4 increased, and the sales volume of 22q1 increased month on month. The company adjusted the adhesive film products at the end of 21q3. The average shipping price of 21q4 adhesive film was 15.4 yuan / square meter. We calculated that the single average net profit exceeded 1.8 yuan. The price of 22q1 raw materials fell, and the average shipment price of the company was reduced to 11 yuan / Ping. Benefiting from the improvement of downstream module production, the sales volume of photovoltaic adhesive film of the company was about 100 million Ping, with a month on month increase of more than 55%.
The production capacity continues to expand steadily to meet the n-type trend, and the R & D and promotion of supporting products. In 2022, the company will continue to promote the expansion of production, focusing on the expansion of production in Shangrao and Taizhou and the new Yancheng production base. By the end of the year, the production capacity is expected to reach 900 million square meters, effectively ensuring the future shipment capacity. In view of the current iterative trend of downstream n-type battery modules, the company strengthened the research and development of EPE and other adhesive films, and jointly promoted the technology and industrialization preparation of supporting adhesive films for large-size TOPCON, hjt and other components with head enterprises. With the production capacity of downstream n-type components put into operation in 2022, the company’s shipping structure will also be optimized, and the proportion of EPE / POE may be gradually increased to further enhance its profitability.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: the company’s capacity continues to expand to effectively ensure the delivery of adhesive film in the future. In 2022, the supply of raw materials will be relatively abundant, and the profitability will gradually improve. It is estimated that the CAGR of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be 62.60% in the next three years, giving the company 35 times PE for 22 years, and the target price will be 215.6 yuan, which will be raised to the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the global PV installed capacity is less than expected; The risk of rising raw material prices and declining profitability of the company; The risk that the company’s capacity construction is less than expected; Risks of policy changes.
