Macro strategy Daily: China’s inflation has dropped, and social finance will perform positively in the first quarter

Asset performance and capital changes:

The top five prices of Chinese commodities: Shanghai tin 3.23%, Shanghai zinc 2.66%, starch 2.56%, crude oil 2.54%, pulp 2.44%; Apple – 1.16%, LPG – 1.07%, jujube – 0.71%, soybean oil – 0.58%, Douer – 0.49%

The top five (100 million yuan) of precipitation capital inflow and outflow: Hutong 12.10, iron ore 2.95, crude oil 2.12, Hutong 1.70, corn 1.56; Apple -1.11, thread -0.75, Hujin -0.62, HUNI -0.46, soda ash -0.32

Inflow and outflow of precipitation funds from the sector (RMB 100 million): non ferrous metals 26.68, energy and chemical industry 9.99, black building materials 4.21, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) 4.13, precious metals -0.92

Important news and economic data:

China’s CPI rose 1.5% year-on-year in December, with an expected 1.7% and a previous value of 2.3%; PPI increased by 10.3% year-on-year, expected to be 10.8%, and the previous value was 12.9%.

In December, China’s social financing scale increased by 2.37 trillion yuan, which is expected to be 2.43 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 2.61 trillion yuan. The stock of social finance increased by 10.3% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 10.1%. M2 increased by 9.0% year-on-year, expected to be 8.7%, and the previous value was 8.5%.

According to the 14th five year plan for digital economy development issued by the State Council, by 2025, the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of China’s GDP, and the data element market system will be preliminarily established.

In December 2021, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.0% year-on-year, is expected to increase by 7.0%, and the previous value increased by 6.8%; The month on month increase was 0.5%, the expected increase was 0.4%, and the previous value increased by 0.8%.

European Central Bank Management Committee Rehn said that to a large extent, the high inflation in the eurozone will be temporary. The most future inflation depends on whether a wage price spiral is formed. At present, wage inflation in the eurozone is relatively low.

Risk tip: transmission of Omicron mutant virus

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