\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 779 Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) )
Strong downstream demand led to a large increase in shipments and both volume and profit
The company achieved a revenue of 6.841 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 240.25%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 682 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 753.37%, mainly benefiting from the high demand for new energy vehicles. In 2021, the company’s shipment of ternary cathode materials reached 42100 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 159.71%, and the net profit per ton is expected to be between 15000 and 16000 yuan; Since the beginning of 2022, the company has maintained high growth, and achieved a revenue of 3.393 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of + 179.31%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 277 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 151.73%. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 16.85% in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 2.38pct; In 2022, Q1 achieved a gross profit margin of 15.60%, with a year-on-year ratio of -1.81pct and a month on month ratio of + 1.62pct, and the upstream cost pressure was marginally relieved. The growth rate of the company’s performance remained high, with both volume and profit rising. We raised the profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 1.249 (+ 0.15) / 19.02 (+ 1.82) / 2.441 billion yuan, EPS is 0.65/0.99/1.27 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 23.04/15.13/11.79 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Deeply cultivate China’s high-quality customers, grasp the market increment, give play to the advantages of cost control, and increase the profit per ton
Deepen cooperation with China’s first-line battery manufacturers: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) etc. through deep cultivation of China’s mainstream battery manufacturers and customers, the company has successfully grasped the market increment of strong demand for power batteries in recent years and maintained the leading position of ternary cathode market. The advantages of cost control are obvious: (1) promote the large-scale production equipment and reduce the cost of scale through technological innovation; (2) Relying on the core technology and production capacity of ternary precursor of Jinchi materials, a subsidiary, to improve the self supply level and bargaining power of ternary precursor and further increase the profit per ton; (3) Backed by Minmetals Group, the supply capacity is stable and reliable.
Promote production expansion at a high speed to meet order demand, continue to expand business and expand growth space
Capacity release: at the end of 2021, the company’s capacity is about 80000 tons, and the second phase of the company’s high-tech base is expected to be fully completed and put into operation in 2022. We expect the company’s cathode material capacity to reach 120000 tons by the end of 2022, with full production and sales to meet the customer’s order demand; Increase in the proportion of high nickel: strengthen the technical development of high nickel 8 series materials, and realize the batch supply to Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and ; Expand the main business: promote the new 60000 ton lithium iron phosphate project, or reduce the cost through joint production to expand the growth space.
Risk tip: the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the company’s production expansion progress is lower than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
