\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, and 22q1 achieved a revenue of 575 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 61 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.15%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 49 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.28%.
The high base, the dislocation of the Spring Festival and the local recurrence of the epidemic have led to the pressure on the income of 22q1 company, the gross profit margin has increased significantly month on month, and the pressure on the cost of raw materials has been relieved. The revenue of 22q1 company decreased slightly. We judge that the main reasons are: (1) the high base of 21q1; (2) 22 Spring Festival ahead of time, Spring Festival stock ahead of time. (3) In mid and late March, the epidemic had an impact on the company's logistics. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 38.59%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.43pct. If the influence of logistics cost adjustment after accounting policy change is excluded, the gross profit margin of 22q1 is expected to be about 42.77%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.25pct, which is mainly due to the increase of raw material cost, the proportion of new products with low gross profit margin and distribution e-commerce channels. However, after reducing the logistics cost, it is estimated that the gross profit margin of 22q1 is about 5.01pct higher than that of 21q4. We believe that the main reason for the significant improvement of gross profit margin is that the pressure of raw material cost of the company has been relieved. The sales expense ratio of 22q1 company was 20.06%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.91pct. If the logistics expense is restored, it is expected to be 24.24%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.27pct; 22q1's management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate were 5.71% / 2.18% / 0.47% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.10pct / - 0.70pct / - 0.24pct respectively. Affected by the above factors, the company's 22q1 net interest rate was 10.67%, down 3.50pct year-on-year.
The operation is stable and good, and the profit side has higher flexibility. In March, the epidemic affected terminal consumption repeatedly in many areas, but the production and logistics of the company were less affected, and the demand for substitute meals during the epidemic stimulated the sales of some categories of the company, such as baked snacks. It is expected that the company will operate steadily under the epidemic. Since 21q2, the company has faced multiple external pressures and pressure on revenue and profit. The company has started multi category and all channel reform, continued to promote channel expansion and sinking, and has achieved certain results in dealer development, terminal network laying, etc. Since 22q2, the base has dropped. It is expected that the cultivation and accumulation of products and channels in the early stage will effectively drive the growth of the company, and the easing of cost pressure and the increase of the proportion of distribution channels with high net interest rate can contribute higher net profit to the company. In the medium and long term, after the new products become mature, the profitability will be improved, the optimization of supply chain and fine operation are also expected to drive the increase of net interest rate, and the profit side of the company has high elasticity.
Investment suggestion: the company has carried out multi-dimensional reform since 21q2. Looking forward to the whole year of 22 years, the early reform results are expected to be gradually realized. We believe that the company's performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter from the first low to the next high. It is expected that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 2.811/33.93/4.020 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.2% / 20.7% / 18.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 259 / 3.88/510 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 71.9% / 49.5% / 31.6%, and the corresponding EPS was 2.00/3.00/3.94 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the promotion of all channels is not as expected; Rising raw material costs; The epidemic has repeatedly affected demand
