\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
Key investment points
In 2022q1, the revenue side grew steadily and the performance met our expectations. In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 114 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 106 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.01%. Under the initial verification of 2q1’s channel optimization and management, the revenue of 202 companies remains stable. The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased slightly compared with the same period, which was mainly caused by the decrease of investment income and the disposal loss of non current assets.
The growth rate of distribution channels exceeded 20%, and the performance of packaged channels was excellent. In 2022q1, the distribution channel revenue was 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22%; The direct channel revenue was 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 18%; The revenue from bulk channels was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 8%. In terms of retail channels, driven by 2022q1 channel management optimization and the whole package, the distribution channels performed beautifully. At the same time, the company strengthened the replacement of dealers and stores. By the end of 2022q1, the number of dealers of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Simi, Huahe and Milana was 1746, 776, 334 and 397 respectively, and the number of stores was 2571, 994, 296 and 277 respectively. Among them, milanna’s income in 2022q1 is 40.68 million yuan, entering a rapid volume period. The revenue of the whole packaging channel in 2022q1 is 127 million yuan, and the layout will continue to be deepened. Bulk channels still focus on optimizing customer structure, improving risk control, strengthening the recovery of accounts receivable and the risk control of notes receivable. It is expected to return to positive growth after the adjustment period.
Thanks to the optimization of business structure, the gross profit margin improved month on month. 2022q1 gross profit margin increased from + 0.09pp to 31.32% year-on-year, with a month on month increase of + 2.57pp (mainly due to the increase in the proportion of retail business). The net profit margin on sales increased from -0.9pp to 5.65% year-on-year, and the net profit margin deducted from non parent company was -0.43pp year-on-year. The expense rate during the period increased from + 0.15pp to 23.96% year-on-year; Among them, the sales expense ratio is + 1.43pp to 12.18% (mainly due to higher marketing and promotion expenses of new products and improved support for dealers); The management expense ratio (including the R & D expense ratio of 3.29%) increased from -1.59pp to 10.94% year-on-year; The financial expense ratio increased from + 0.31pp to 0.84% year-on-year.
The introduction of new products affects the short-term inventory turnover efficiency. 2022q1 company’s inventory turnover days are 48.27 days; Up 9.59 days year-on-year; The turnover days of accounts receivable are 46.35 days; Year on year increase of 3.83 days; Accounts payable turnover days: 85.03 days; Up 3.12 days year-on-year.
We are optimistic about the reform of retail investment channel and profit forecast. Considering the increase in the price of raw materials and the investment of sales expenses, we slightly reduced the profit forecast for 20222023. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 1.35 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan and 1.99 billion yuan respectively from 20222024 (the original forecast for 20222023 is 1.41 billion yuan and 1.75 billion yuan), corresponding to pe13, 10 and 9x. We are optimistic about the company’s performance, accelerate the valuation repair and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the investment attraction and opening of stores are not as expected, the price of raw materials rises, and the industry competition intensifies.
