\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Event: Yili released the 2022 annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, the revenue was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%, 8.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.0%, 25.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.7%, and 760 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 27.8%; The revenue of 22q1 was 31.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.5%, and the parent company was 3.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.3%. The profit of Q1 was slightly higher than expected. In 2021, the business of milk powder continued to grow rapidly. In terms of products, the company’s revenue from liquid milk / milk powder / cold drinks in 2021 was 84.91/16.21/7.16 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5% / 25.8% / 16.3%. The sales revenue of new products such as Luxi and Qiaoling accounted for 13.4%, of which the sales revenue of key products such as Luxi and Qiaoling accounted for 13.4%. In terms of volume and price, the contribution of liquid milk / milk powder / cold drink volume and price growth is + 7% / + 10% / + 10% and + 4% / + 14% / + 6% respectively. Liquid milk / milk powder / cold drink of 2022q1 company achieved revenue of 22.32/54.0/2.8 billion yuan respectively, the same as + 7.0% / 35.3% / 35.5%. On the whole, the leading position of the company’s normal temperature liquid milk business was further consolidated, with a market share of 40% and a year-on-year increase of 0.64pct; According to Nielsen data, the company’s infant powder distribution revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan, the growth rate of golden collar guanzhenhu ranked first in the sub category, and the market share increased by 1.4pct year-on-year.
The product structure continues to be optimized, and the profit improvement is on the way. The gross sales difference of 21q4 / 22q1 was 5.36% / 16.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -6.5pct / + 0.13pct. The gross sales difference of 21q4 fell more mainly due to the centralized provision of Winter Olympic Games expenses, and the improvement of gross sales difference of 22q1 was mainly due to the upgrading of product structure and the improvement of competition pattern. The net interest rate of the company in 2021 was 7.93% and 22q1 was 11.33%, which was the historical peak since 2012. The logic of structural upgrading and the slowdown of duopoly competition has been continuously verified.
This year’s business plan is steady, and the leading barriers are constantly consolidated. According to the company’s business plan, in 2022, the company plans to achieve a total operating revenue of 129.6 billion yuan, an increase of 17.2%, a total profit of 12.2 billion yuan, an increase of 20.6%, and a profit margin of + 0.3pct. We believe that with the upgrading of normal temperature milk structure, the accelerated development of milk powder business and the active expansion of low-temperature cheese, the revenue side is expected to achieve steady growth, and the profit side is expected to continue to improve under the slowdown of duopoly competition.
Profit forecast: considering the consolidation of Aoyou by the end of March, it is expected to contribute 7.7 billion revenue and 800 million profit to 2022 (calculated according to the consistent expectation of wind). Excluding the impact of consolidation, the main business objectives are expected to be revenue + 10.2% and profit + 11%. Considering the consolidation of Aoyou, it is estimated that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 129.8/1484164.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.3% / + 14.4% / + 11.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10.77/13.3/15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.7% / + 21.0% / + 19.0%, corresponding to PE 23 / 19 / 16 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the competition slows down, which is lower than expected, and food safety problems
