\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 77 Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) )
2021 performance starts to recover. It is expected that the profitability in 2022 will improve quarter by quarter and maintain the "buy" rating
The company's 2021 / 2021q4 / 2022q1 revenue is 2.289 billion yuan (+ 17.76%) / 715 million yuan (+ 52.29%) / 612 million yuan (+ 35.56%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 180 million yuan (+ 131.03%) / 29 million yuan (- 29.07%) / 47 million yuan (+ 2.78%). We maintain the profit forecast for 20222023 and add the profit forecast for 2024: it is expected that the company's net profit from 20222024 will be 215 / 286 / 374 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.89/1.19/1.56 yuan, The PE corresponding to the current share price is 15.6 / 11.7 / 9.0 times respectively. The company's B2B business has grown steadily, B2C business has reduced costs and increased efficiency, 2021 performance has started to recover, and the company's "buy" rating has been maintained.
B2B: significant recovery in 2021, long-term growth of performance supported by new and old customers
In 2021, B2B business realized a revenue of 1.464 billion yuan (+ 24.0%). 2021q4 / 2022q1 revenue increased by 50% + / 40% +. (1) B2B in the statement: it is expected that the proportion will increase to 70% + in 2022, and the revenue growth rate will be 20% - 30%. Regular customers: the revenue of Nike / decathlon in 2021 is about 340 / 310 million yuan. It is estimated that the growth rate of Nike and decathlon will be 20% - 30% in 2022, and the revenue of VF will double; New customers: Puma is expected to ship in 2022h2, and new customers Yeti and Homedepot are expected to start in 2023. (2) Off balance sheet B2B: Jiale's income in 2021 was 976 million yuan and its loss was 28 million yuan. It has carried out strategic cooperation with UNIQLO and opened up new customers Adidas, puma, Li Ning, Anta and FILA. It is expected that the revenue growth rate will be 30% - 50% in 3-5 years from 2023.
B2C: in 2021, mipai made stable profits, and the revenue of 90 brands increased rapidly, but it has not yet achieved breakeven
B2C revenue in 2021 was 756 million yuan (+ 3.2%). 2021q4 / 2022q1 revenue fell / increased in single digits year-on-year. In terms of sub brands: in 2021, the revenue of MI brand is about 350400 million yuan, the profit is about 20 million +, the revenue of 90 sub brands is about 400 million, and the loss is about 80 million. The company's B2C business has made strategic adjustment, with 90 points to patiently polish the brand and strictly control fees. It is expected to reduce losses in 2022; Mipai will optimize its product structure and improve its profitability. It is expected to maintain steady growth in 2022. It is expected that the loss reduction measures will begin to appear in Q2, and the profitability will improve quarter by quarter.
The effect of cost reduction and efficiency increase will appear quarterly and continue to improve the profitability of the company
In 2021, the overall / B2B / B2C gross profit margin is 26.58% (- 1.90pct) / 25.97% (- 3.24pct) / 28.28% (+ 0.44pct). In 2021 and 2022q1, the expense rates of the company are 23.3% (- 1.3pct) and 22.2% (- 1.4pct) respectively. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021 / 2022q1 is 7.87% (+ 3.86pct) / 7.60% (- 2.42pct). At the end of 2021 / 2022q1, the inventory amount was 533 million yuan (+ 37%) / 543 million yuan. The accounts receivable at the end of 2021 was 477 million yuan (+ 25%). In 2021 / 2022q1, the net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 47 million (- 65%) - RMB 88 million (+ 33%). The balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2021 was 781 million yuan (- 23%).
Risk warning: the production capacity is lower than expected; The growth rate of orders slowed down; Brand operation is not as expected.
