\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 080 Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) )
Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) disclose the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the annual revenue was 842 million yuan (+ 44.91%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan (+ 37.59%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 199 million yuan (+ 44.93%). In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 333 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.61%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 849799 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.82%, and a net profit of 772794 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.49%.
The products grow rapidly, and the inflatable bed reflects the upgrading trend. Combined with the sales volume and revenue data of major categories disclosed by the company in 2021, we can see: 1) inflatable mattress: the revenue is 636 million, with a year-on-year increase of 47%, accounting for 76% of the revenue, which is still the company's flagship product. From the perspective of price, the price of a single inflatable mattress has increased from 113.14 yuan in 2020 to 149.92 yuan, and the product upgrading trend is obvious; 2) Outdoor luggage: revenue was 111 million, with a year-on-year increase of 59.6%, of which the marginal contribution of new product ice bag was large; 3) Headrest cushion: the income was 55.71 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%, and the price was stable as a whole; 4) Other products: the revenue was 40.14 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. In 2021, the company's largest customer accounted for 28.98% of the company's revenue, and the top five customers accounted for 44.2% in total, which was relatively healthy.
Deep ploughing in the outdoor industry, with long-term competitiveness. We believe that the growth of the company in recent years will be sustainable. In the medium and long term, the company will benefit from the rigid demand of consumer groups at home and abroad for outdoor sports, not simply from the overseas epidemic. Outdoor sports accessories are characterized by many scenes, many categories and fast renewal. The company's advantages are: 1) its advantages and experience in TPU composite fabrics can be widely used in all kinds of downstream scenes; 2) With strong design and R & D capabilities, establish stable and trusted cooperative relations with overseas leading enterprises; 3) Continuously improve the control of manufacturing cost. In terms of development outside China, overseas consumers have mature consumption habits, large demand and stable growth, and there are demands for fabric improvement, product performance improvement and so on; Chinese consumers are in the early stage of the formation of consumption habits, but they are explosive. We are optimistic that the Chinese market will provide broad development space for the company in the long term.
Risk warning: overseas demand is lower than expected; The company's capacity expansion was lower than expected.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating. The company's performance growth is very solid. We maintain the company's profit forecast of 310 million and 400 million from 2022 to 2023, and increase the profit forecast of 514 million in 2024, corresponding to the current market value PE of 20.6, 15.8 and 12.4x respectively. We believe that the company has core competitiveness in fabric technology, downstream customers, design and R & D ability. The recent continuation of overseas outdoor sports and the cultivation of consumption habits of Chinese outdoor sports can support the long-term growth of the company, Maintain the "buy" rating.
