\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 233 Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) )
Core view
In 2021, the company made outstanding contributions to the performance of refining and chemical industry, and the prosperity of filaments led to the recovery of gross profit. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 59.131 billion yuan, an increase of 29.01% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 158.33%; Earnings per share is 3.17 yuan / share. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 12.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.503 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.45%; Earnings per share is 0.62 yuan / share. In 2021, the company invested 20% in the Zhejiang Petrochemical Project, which contributed 4.46 billion yuan of investment income to the company. The phase II project of Zhejiang Petrochemical was initially put into trial production in the second half of 2021. It is expected to reach the production capacity around the middle of 2022, which is expected to increase the investment income of the company.
Recently, affected by the epidemic, the filament market is depressed. In 2021, the company’s POY / FDY / DTY output was 559.61/97.10770300 tons respectively; The production and marketing rates were 96.93% / 98.57% / 98.68% respectively; The sales prices of the products are 662936716975881064 yuan / ton respectively. The sales price of the products in 2021 increases by 29% – 36% year-on-year compared with that in 2020. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s main polyester filament products increased, which were 13.70% / 10.73% / 11.74% respectively. In the first quarter of 2022, affected by the Russian Ukrainian war, the crude oil price rose broadly in a short term, reducing the profits of the polyester industry chain. Since March, affected by the epidemic situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, textile enterprises in some downstream areas in the region have stopped production, the demand for downstream textile clothing is weak, and the profitability of the filament industry has declined. In the first quarter of 2022, the quarterly average processing price difference of POY / FDY / DTY was 1270 / 1577 / 2815 yuan / ton respectively. We believe that the profitability of polyester filament has been damaged in the short term due to the epidemic. In the medium and long term, the trend of global economic recovery is clear, and the downstream demand will recover in an orderly manner.
The projects of the two bases have been promoted in an orderly manner, and Jiatong energy has entered the investment return period. Nantong Yangkou Port polyester integration project of the company has built an annual output of 5 million tons of PTA, 2.4 million tons of polyester spinning and supporting projects. At present, a set of 300000 tons of units has been put into production. It is expected that 5-6 units will enter the production stage by the end of 2022 and all will be put into operation in the first half of 2023; PTA project is expected to be put into operation in the first quarter of 2023. The planned 2.4 million T / a filament (staple fiber) project of Shuyang base of the company has been approved and started construction. At present, Nantong project has entered the centralized production period and gradually obtained the return on investment from 2022. The company’s long-term goal of “building a new Tongkun” has been promoted in an orderly manner, and will become one of the largest polyester filament production enterprises in China and the world in the future.
Risk tip: the risk of continued weak downstream demand caused by the spread of the epidemic; The risk that the wide fluctuation of crude oil price leads to the decline of profitability of large refining and chemical projects; The risk that the project under construction is put into operation less than expected.
Investment suggestion: the polyester leader continues to expand, the investment profit of large refining and chemical industry is rich, and the “buy” rating is maintained. The company’s main business capacity continued to expand, and Nantong project entered the return on investment period. Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II is expected to be completed and put into operation within this year, which will further increase the investment income of the company. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 8.035101.73/11.434 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 3.33/4.22/4.74, corresponding to PE of current stock price of 4.3/3.4/3.0x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
