\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 49 Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) )
Events: 1) the company released its annual report for 2021, with annual revenue of 900 million yuan (+ 11.3%), net profit attributable to the parent company of 95.47 million yuan (+ 54.2%), deduction of non net profit of 91.76 million yuan (+ 34.6%), and net operating cash flow of 210 million yuan (+ 4.1%); 2) The company released the first quarterly report of 2022. The revenue of 22q1 was 210 million yuan (+ 18.3%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.64 million yuan (- 31.2%), the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 8.78 million yuan (- 29.2%), and the net operating cash flow was 37.14 million yuan (- 3.9%).
Restore the impact of share based payment fees, and the performance of 22q1 is in line with expectations. In 2021, the company’s share based payment expense was about 16.73 million yuan, and the non recurring profit and loss was 3.71 million yuan. The performance was restored to the “net profit” under the incentive assessment, which met the assessment objectives of equity incentive. Quarterly, the single quarter revenue of 2021q4 is 300 million yuan (+ 20.5%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 37 million yuan (+ 18.9%), which is higher than the single quarter revenue and performance growth of 21q3 by + 7.8% and + 4.2%. From the first quarter of 2022, the growth rate of income under the epidemic is in line with expectations, and the growth rate of apparent performance is under pressure due to the share payment fee of 8.37 million yuan. Excluding this impact, the growth rate of endogenous performance is expected to exceed 30%.
The independent pricing of drug business ushered in the second wave of development, and the medical service business grew rapidly. In terms of business, in 2021, the revenue of the company’s drug sector was 330 million yuan (+ 4.2%), including 270 million yuan (- 0.1%) of its own drugs, with a gross profit margin of 59.5% (+ 3.8pp). The exclusive product Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet is the first anti fibrosis drug approved by the State Food and drug administration. At present, there are about 7 million patients with liver cirrhosis in China every year. Assuming that the penetration rate of anti fibrosis traditional Chinese medicine is 10% and the company’s market share is 25%, the market space of Ruangan Tablet is more than 1 billion yuan, As the company gradually develops the off campus market and successfully realizes the transformation to independent pricing sales, it is expected that the revenue and net profit are expected to increase significantly in 2022. In 2021, the revenue of equipment business was 550 million yuan (+ 14.3%), and the impact of the epidemic in overseas regions, especially in Europe and the United States, was gradually weakened. The income from medical services and other businesses is 20.02 million yuan (+ 88.4%). At present, three outpatient departments have been opened in Chengdu, and it is expected to gradually start off-site expansion in 2022.
The company is a leading enterprise in the diagnosis and treatment of liver diseases in China, and its performance driven by equipment + drugs + services has ushered in an inflection point. The FibroScan liver fibrosis diagnostic equipment of the company is the first in the world and has become the first choice for noninvasive and immediate detection of clinical liver fibrosis; The exclusive product Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet is recommended for the clinical guidance of liver fibrosis. Benefiting from the national support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry and the development of OTC market outside the hospital, it is expected to become the main driving force of performance; Based on pediatric medical health management and chronic liver disease management, the profit model of successfully expanding service business. The assessment target of equity incentive of the company is 20212023, and the net profit is RMB 150 million, 250 million. The rapid growth shows the confidence of the management.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: without considering the impact of equity incentive amortization, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 150, 250 and 330 million yuan, corresponding to 27, 16 and 12 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: competition risk, risk of rising raw material prices, less than expected expansion outside the hospital, less than expected localization of FibroScan, and risk of overseas epidemic recurrence
