\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Core view
The results in the fourth quarter of 21 and the first quarter of 22 were brilliant. In 2021, the annual revenue was 45.11 billion yuan (+ 29.2%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.07 billion yuan (+ 34.2%); In the fourth quarter of the year, the single quarter revenue was 14.61 billion yuan (+ 27.2%), deducting 1.18 billion yuan (+ 259%) of net profit not attributable to the parent company; The net profit of non parent quarter was 14.2 billion yuan (+ 12.82 billion yuan) in the first quarter of 2022. In the context of epidemic prevention and control in the first quarter, the company's performance slightly exceeded expectations.
The impact of the epidemic is controllable. The company achieved rapid growth in business volume and stable price in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter and the first quarter, the company's business volume achieved a rapid growth of 12% and 18% respectively. Among them, in the middle and late March, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other cities successively implemented sealing and control management due to the epidemic, resulting in a decline in the operating efficiency of express enterprises and a slight damage to the average daily business volume. Therefore, it can be seen that the growth rate of the company's business volume decreased to 5% in March, and the overall impact is controllable. The market share of the company in the first quarter increased by about 1.0 percentage points year-on-year to 15.3%. Due to the easing of industry competition and the company's optimization of customer structure, the company's single ticket express price increased by about 10.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter and the first quarter.
Thanks to the price repair and customer structure optimization, the profitability of Express single ticket of the company was significantly repaired in the fourth quarter and the first quarter. The company's net profit of single ticket express delivery in the fourth quarter and the first quarter was about 0.15 yuan and 0.2 yuan respectively, which achieved month on month improvement for two consecutive quarters, thus driving the company's net profit of deducting non parent company to achieve explosive growth (among which the aviation and freight forwarding business contributed about 170 million yuan and 81 million yuan respectively in the fourth quarter and the first quarter). The company's outstanding performance in the past two quarters is mainly due to: 1) since the second quarter of 2021, the regulatory authorities have standardized the irrational competition in the express industry, and the price war has continued to ease. Especially after entering the peak season of the fourth quarter, Tongda and other leading express companies have formed a price alliance and synchronously increased the express unit price, so the single ticket express price of the company has increased significantly year-on-year in the past two quarters; 2) In the past two years, the company has improved the service quality of the overall network through business reform. Since the second half of last year, the company has begun to eliminate low-quality customers and optimize the customer structure. Due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the rise in labor costs, the company's single ticket transportation costs and single ticket transit costs decreased only slightly year-on-year in the fourth quarter and the first quarter. The company's capital expenditure in the fourth quarter and the first quarter was 1.32 billion yuan and 1.16 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of - 38% and + 5.6% respectively. The company's capital expenditure showed a contraction trend. In addition, the company plans to implement the second phase of stock option incentive plan, in which the formulation of profit assessment objectives shows the company's confidence in its own development.
Risk tips: changes of epidemic situation in China; Deterioration of price competition; The demand growth of e-commerce express delivery was lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.03/38.5/4.66 billion respectively (the adjustment range from 22 to 23 years is + 2.1% / + 13.3%), with a year-on-year increase of 44% / 27% / 21% respectively. Considering the controllable impact of the epidemic on the company and maintaining the "buy" rating of the company, the PE valuation of EPS corresponding to the current share price in 22-23 years is 19x and 15x respectively.
