\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company released the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 19.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.75%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72.56%, EPS of 4.37 yuan / share, and plans to pay out 18 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares; In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.62%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70.03%.
Key investment points:
The first battle of the 14th five year plan was won, and 2022q1 made a good start. The company ended successfully in 2021, only one step away from double 10 billion yuan. The company’s performance increased significantly in the first three quarters of last year. At the end of the year, the company’s ability to control goods (contract liabilities rose to 7.376 billion yuan and fell back to 3.881 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter). In 2021q4, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year – 24.79%, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 435 million yuan, a year-on-year-24.90%. Thanks to the optimization of product structure and the contraction of expenses (the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio is -0.45pct / – 1.94pct respectively), the company’s annual gross profit margin is + 2.76pct to 74.91% year-on-year, and the sales net profit margin is + 4.72pct to 26.99% year-on-year. 2022q1 continued its high growth on the high base. In March, the operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.13/1.01 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 69.2% / 164.4%, and continued to accelerate from January to February. The gross profit margin / net sales profit margin of 2022q1 company was 74.75% / 35.40%, respectively + 1.22pct / + 5.60pct year-on-year, mainly due to the sales expense rate of -6.80pct in the first quarter. Cash flow also showed outstanding performance. The sales revenue of 2021q4 / 2022q1 was 6.213/8.871 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 90.23% / + 71.94% respectively.
Blue and white led the upgrading, and the product structure was significantly improved. In 2021, Fen Liquor / Series liquor / prepared liquor achieved an operating revenue of 17.9206381250 billion yuan, accounting for 90.47% / 3.22% / 6.31%, with a year-on-year increase of 41.90% / 12.73% / 91.39% respectively; 2021q4 Fen Liquor and series liquor control goods, and the prepared liquor has more than doubled year-on-year growth; In 2022q1, the revenue of Fen Liquor / Series liquor / prepared liquor was 9.873260/347 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.40% / 118.31% / 7.18% respectively, and the proportion of Fen Liquor expanded to 94.20%. The atmosphere of blue and white 20 is on the rise. Under the quota system of blue and white, Panama and old Baifen are effectively driven. In 2021, the overall gross profit margin of Fen brand is + 3.10pct to 76.55% year-on-year. In the future, the structure of blue and white / waist / Bofen will gradually transition to 4:3:3. Adhering to the product strategy of “grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”, the company continues to promote the construction of large blue and white products, continuously release the head effect of blue and white, strengthen the shaping of waist products and drive the overall growth. At the same time, it continues to tap the brand value of Xinghua village and promote the development of healthy industry of bamboo leaf Qingda.
The proportion outside the province accounts for 60%, and the company continues to expand investment. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 8.070/11.738 billion within / outside the province, with a year-on-year increase of 34.60% / 49.48%; In 2022q1, the revenue was 3.854/6.627 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 31.32% / 52.49%; The company has completed the structural transformation of the market inside and outside the province from 6:4 to 4:6 in nearly a decade, and the proportion outside the province has further increased to 63% in 2022q1. By the end of 2021, the company had 728 / 2796 distributors inside / outside the province, with a net increase of 83 / 545 respectively during the year. At the end of the first quarter, 93 to 3617 distributors continued to be added, and the number of controllable terminals increased to 1.05 million. In the future, the company will continue to optimize the “1357 + 10” market layout and gradually consolidate the foundation of national strategy.
“Speed, quantity and quality” all-round high-quality development, the annual goal is expected to be completed more than expected, and the brand potential energy will be accelerated. The good start of the first quarter is the first report card handed over by Chairman yuan Qingmao since taking office. According to the company’s revenue growth target of 25% in 2022, 42% of the annual tasks have been completed in the first quarter (the revenue in the first quarter of the past few years has basically accounted for less than 35%). Since 2022, the company has actively carried out work around the “Four Focuses” and “four insistences”, focusing on structural adjustment and focusing on the “three sectors” in layout. The market operation efficiency has been effectively improved, the governance structure has been continuously improved, the tenure system of managers and contractual management have been continuously deepened, and the technical transformation project with an investment of 9.102 billion will help the company continue to move forward to higher quality on the basis of scale expansion. Fen Liquor is a leader in fragrance, with profound brand heritage. It is one of the few liquor enterprises that can form a large volume at various prices such as sub high-end, medium high-end and light bottle liquor below 100 yuan at the same time. With the continuous release of blue and white potential energy, structural upgrading and nationalization are still the main focus in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: EPS is expected to be 6.23/8.02/9.88 yuan from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 43 / 34 / 27 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects consumer demand; Increased market competition leads to increased costs; The expansion or dynamic sales outside the province are less than expected; The sharp economic fluctuations have caused the price of high-end Baijiu to decline, squeezing the demand for secondary high-end liquor; Food safety risks.
