\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 319 Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) )
Event: 1) the company released its annual report for 2021 and achieved an operating revenue of 490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 198.8%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 253.5%. The net operating cash flow was RMB 40 million, with a year-on-year increase of 89.5%. 2) The first quarter report of 2022 was released, and the operating revenue was 50 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 10 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 133.3%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was – 10 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 134%.
The product promotion was relatively rapid in 21 years, and the short-term performance of 22q1 was under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic. 1) By quarter, the company’s revenue of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in a single quarter was 0.6/1.1/1.2/200 million yuan (+ 120% / + 27.9% / + 30.5% / + 68.6%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 0.2/0.2/0.4/0.3 billion yuan (+ 875.6% / + 100.5% / + 52.9% / + 11436147%). Among them, the revenue and profit of 21q4 increased rapidly, mainly due to the continuous high volume of tetanus products of the company. The slowdown in the growth rate of 22q1 is mainly due to the frequent sporadic outbreaks across the country, Limited Logistics and limited medical resources for disease control. 2) In terms of profitability, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 93.9% (- 1.2pp) and remained basically stable. The sales expense rate is 50.4% (- 7pp), which is mainly due to the gradual expansion of the company’s sales volume and the embodiment of scale effect. The management fee rate was 10.4% (- 2PP), which remained stable. The R & D expense rate was 6.1% (+ 0.5pp), which was mainly due to the increase of the company’s clinical project expense. The financial expense rate was – 0.01% (- 0.2pp), which was mainly due to the arrival of raised funds and the increase of interest income. Based on the above factors, the company’s net interest rate in 2021 was 22.2% (+ 11pp), and its profitability increased significantly.
The performance in 21 years was in line with market expectations, and tetanus vaccine grew steadily. In terms of products, the company’s tetanus vaccine revenue reached 390 million yuan (+ 35%), accounting for 80%. The company’s tetanus vaccine has achieved stable volume in three channels: trauma clinic, dog injury clinic and blood product enterprises. The company’s tetanus vaccine sales volume reached 3.19 million in 2021. At the same time, in 2022, with the continuous promotion of the sales team and the further improvement of people’s vaccination awareness, we expect the company’s tetanus vaccine to achieve a significant growth. At the same time, the company obtained the first batch of issuance and marketing of AC conjugate vaccine in 2021, and is expected to maintain a stable growth trend in the future.
Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to carry out phase III clinical in 2022q1 and is expected to be on the market in 2025. As a global innovative variety, Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to fill the gap in the world. The company plans to complete phase III clinical trial in about two years and do production registration in one year. The products are expected to be listed in 2025. It is estimated that the number of closed fracture surgeries in China will be about 1.34 million in 2030, of which 80% of the infected people will be vaccinated. According to the price of 3 doses per person, a total of 3000 yuan, the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine can correspond to the sales scale of 960 million, driving the rapid and large-scale performance of the company. At the same time, the company’s Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to be exported to overseas markets as a global innovative variety in the future, so as to strengthen the company’s international influence.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.33 yuan, 0.53 yuan and 0.8 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 50, 32 and 21 times respectively. Tetanus vaccine, the company’s core variety, continued to grow rapidly, driving the company’s rapid growth; Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, a heavy product under development, has been successfully promoted in clinical practice and has the attribute of global originality. It is expected to achieve a breakthrough in the global blank, become a global heavy variety and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of existing products are lower than expected, and there is a risk of failure in the R & D of Staphylococcus aureus vaccine.
