\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Event: 1) the company released its annual report for 2021 and achieved an operating revenue of 3.65 billion yuan, an increase of 61.5% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 1.19 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 91.9%. The net operating cash flow was 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 275.7%. 2) The first quarter report of 2022 was released, and the operating revenue was 870 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 214.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 987.7%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2763.8%.
Traditional products such as 22q1 quadruple vaccine have recovered significantly, and the high-volume 13 valent vaccine can be expected. 1) On a quarterly basis, the company’s revenue of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in a single quarter was 2.8 / 7.8 / 13.3 / 1.27 billion yuan (+ 56% / + 11.9% / + 140.7% / + 51%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 0.3/3.1/7/230 billion yuan (+ 937.6% / + 21% / + 303.2% / – 7%). Among them, the profit of 21q4 decreased slightly, mainly due to the slowdown of covid-19 vaccine vaccination in China and the frequent sporadic outbreaks in various places, which also affected the sales of traditional vaccines. The substantial increase in the performance of 22q1 was mainly due to the recovery of the company’s quadruple vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine. 2) In terms of profitability, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 73% (- 17pp), mainly due to the company’s non immunization planning vaccine gross profit margin of 70% and covid-19 vaccine export products of about 41%, which lowered the overall gross profit margin level. The sales expense rate was 15.8% (- 23pp), which was mainly due to the company’s non immunization planning vaccine sales affected by the epidemic and the reduction of market investment. The management fee rate was 7% (-0.45pp), which remained stable. The R & D expense rate was 9.6% (- 2PP), which was mainly due to the significant volume of covid-19 vaccine. Although the R & D investment increased significantly, the overall proportion decreased slightly. The financial expense rate was – 1.6% (- 0.7pp), mainly due to the increase of interest income. Based on the above factors, the company’s net interest rate in 2021 was 34.5% (+ 4.5pp), and its profitability increased significantly.
22q1 traditional varieties are superimposed on newly listed varieties to achieve rapid volume. The substantial growth of the company’s performance in 22q1 is mainly due to the rapid rebound growth after the optimization of silianmiao channel. The revenue in 22q1 increased by 231% year-on-year, and it is expected to achieve about 1.3-1.4 billion yuan in the whole year. Secondly, hepatitis B vaccine 22q1 achieved a year-on-year increase of 33%, mainly due to 60 μ G product contribution increment. At present, the 13 price pneumonia vaccine has been admitted in most provinces in China. The company adopts the low price strategy, and 22q1 is estimated to achieve the annual target of 10%. In 2021, under the condition of low base, the company’s conventional varieties will continue to invest in the company’s channels, and the sales volume is expected to exceed the market expectation.
In the next 2-3 years, the products will be approved to increase step by step, contributing to the company’s long-term performance increment. At present, the company has more than 30 projects under research, and 13 have entered the registration process. It is expected that 4-5 new varieties will be approved in the next two years. Among them, the freeze-dried diploid crazy vaccine, as the industry gold standard, has received the on-site verification notice. The summary report of phase I and III clinical trials of freeze-dried varicella vaccine has been completed in March 22. The results show that the company’s vaccine has good immunogenicity and safety for healthy varicella susceptible people aged 1 ~ 55 years. In addition, MCV4, IPV and other vaccines have entered or completed phase III clinical stage, and the recombinant EV71 vaccine has completed phase II clinical stage. At present, it is preparing to be transferred to tetravalent hand, foot and mouth disease vaccine, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine and other vaccines have obtained the notice of approval for clinical trial. The product pipeline is based on innovation, focuses on solving the existing unmet needs, and has sufficient power for long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Covid-19 vaccine revenue is not considered. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.06 yuan, 3.13 yuan and 3.86 yuan respectively. In the long run, the impact of covid-19 will be marginal weakened in the future. The company’s traditional vaccines (quadruple vaccine, hepatitis B vaccine, etc.) will enter the recovery and large-scale stage in 2022, and the new product 13 valent pneumonia vaccine will be approved for listing. It is expected to accelerate the large-scale in 2022. As the leader of China’s innovative vaccine enterprise, the company has rich research and management lines. In the next 2-4 years, many varieties will be approved, with strong long-term growth certainty, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the R & D of new products is lower than expected, and the product price reduction risk.
