\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 398 Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) )
The main brand has declined due to the impact of the epidemic, and it is expected that the brand product power will change for a long time
The company released its annual report for 21 years / quarterly report for 22q1. The company's revenue for 21 years was 20.19 billion (+ 12.4%) / net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.49 billion (+ 39.6%); 22q1 company revenue 5.21 billion (- 5.2%) / net profit attributable to parent company 720 million (- 14.2%).
The main brand of the company recorded an increase of 9.9% in the whole year of 21 years, which gradually rebounded compared with 20 years; However, 21q4's income fell by 8.5% due to the impact of the epidemic. At the same time, although the performance of 22q1 recovered in January and February and the revenue increased well year-on-year, the epidemic since March has reduced the revenue of main brands by 7.3% in the whole quarter.
We believe that when there is no epidemic, the performance of Hailan's main brand still shows the gradual effectiveness of its efforts in product innovation and brand upgrading. In terms of product innovation, in 21 years, the company launched products with scientific and technological attributes such as "six dimensional elastic pants", "three anti black and white small T", "ice cool cotton", "all-round jacket", "Aurora goose down" and so on; In terms of brand marketing, Hailan's main brand is associated with the "twelve zodiac" and IP such as China Aerospace to continuously improve its market popularity.
In terms of online channels, while consolidating the traditional platform, the company further deepened the proportion of revenue from new channels such as live broadcasting. At present, a healthy model of tmall / JD / vipshop / new channel sales accounting for 4:2:2 has been formed. In the whole year of 21, the online revenue increased by 33%, accounting for more than 14% of the group's revenue.
We believe that the main brand of Lanhai is still expected to achieve the correct results after the gradual change of the company's main brand.
New brands developed well, gradually turned around losses, and inventories increased slightly affected by the epidemic
Besides the main brand, other brands of the company are developing well. Ovv's cost-effective products based on high-quality natural fabrics continue to be recognized by the market and continue to maintain rapid growth in the past 21 years; Hailan optimization also has a good operation trend. Among children's clothing brands, Yingshi's income increased by 39% and that of boys and girls reached 20% in 21 years, both of which maintained a healthy growth trend. The revenue of other brands increased by 27% in 21 years, and still maintained a growth rate of 17% under the influence of 22q1 epidemic. In addition to revenue, we believe that the company's new brand business is expected to gradually contribute profits in the future.
At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the absolute value of the company's inventory increased slightly year-on-year. 22q1 company has an inventory of 8.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and the inventory turnover days are 263 days. We believe that although the current inventory level has increased compared with 21 years, it is still within the normal range in the company's history. We believe that the company's inventory level is expected to continue to improve after the epidemic has passed.
Profit and valuation forecast
We believe that in the short term, although it is disturbed by the external environment, the company's rich heritage in brand power, channel resources and supply chain resources makes us still look forward to obtaining greater market space in the future. In addition, the healthy growth of several other new brands has also further boosted the company's performance.
It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 22-24 years is 2.68/29.8/3.3 billion, with a growth rate of 7.4% / 11.4% / 10.7%, corresponding to the valuation of 7.8/7.0/6.4x. As an industry leader, the company has a safety margin under the current valuation. At the same time, the performance is expected to rebound after the epidemic and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic worsened beyond expectations, and consumer demand changed
