\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 905 China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) )
Event overview: on April 27, the company released its 2021 annual report. During the reporting period, the company realized an operating revenue of 15.484 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.85%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 5.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.26%; The deducted non net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 5.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.53%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of Tianma Bearing Group Co.Ltd(002122) yuan per share to all shareholders (1.083 billion yuan has been distributed in the middle of 2021, with a total dividend rate of 30.0%). The company released the first quarter report of 2022. During the reporting period, the operating revenue was 5.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.84%; The net profit attributable to the listed company was RMB 6.451 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.451%; Non net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 2.264 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 52.29%.
Doubts about power consumption can be eliminated: from January to February 2022, the average utilization hours of wind power and photovoltaic power above the national standard decreased by 22.9% and 5.2% respectively year-on-year. Therefore, the market was pessimistic about the power consumption, revenue and profit expectations of new energy operators including the company in Q1. However, in March, the utilization hours of wind power and photovoltaic increased by 15.5% and 9.3% year-on-year, narrowing the decline of utilization hours of wind and light in Q1 to 10.4% and 0.0%. The company’s Q1 power generation increased by 46.6% year-on-year, of which the growth rates of wind and light were 48.0% and 44.2% respectively. In addition, the price of 3gw sea breeze installed at the end of 2021 was high, which promoted the growth rate of Q1 revenue of the company to exceed the growth rate of electricity by 5.2pct.
The total reserves of projects under construction and approved exceed 26gw: by the end of 2021, the company’s planned installed capacity of projects under construction exceeds 11gw, including more than 5GW of wind power and more than 6Gw of photovoltaic power; In 2021, the planned installed capacity of newly approved projects will exceed 15gw, of which wind and light will exceed 3gw and 12gw respectively. If completed, the company’s installed capacity will reach nearly 50gw. Compared with the green power industry and the thermal power operators in transition to green power, the company has achieved the goal of 2021 installation planning without compromise, which is rare; Observe the development process of the company, and it has the foresight of goal planning and the execution ability to achieve goals.
The parity process is accelerated, and the development of sea wind is expected to exceed expectations: in the phase I project of Shanghai Jinshan offshore wind power, which completed the bidding in March, the consortium led by the company won the bid with the declared price of 0.302 yuan / kWh. This price is 0.1135 yuan / kWh lower than the benchmark price of coal and electricity in Shanghai, far exceeding market expectations. Considering that the project is the first to complete the bidding and is also the first to realize the parity sea breeze of full capacity grid connection, it is of special significance; And the partners in the consortium may contribute to the later construction and operation.
Investment suggestion: previously, the market had doubts about the performance of the company’s 1q22 and the ability to realize the “14th five year plan” installation plan, but throughout the company’s development process, its execution of the goal has not been fully recognized. Considering that the sea breeze parity process exceeded expectations and combined with the pre judgment and adjustment of electricity and electricity price, the company’s profit forecast is expected to be 0.30/0.33 yuan (the previous value is 0.29/0.31 yuan) for 22 / 23 years and 0.37 yuan for 24 years, corresponding to 18.0/16.3/14.7 times of the closing price PE on April 27. With reference to the company’s historical valuation and the valuation level of comparable companies in the same industry, the company is given 25 times PE for 22 years and the target price is 7.50 yuan / share, maintaining the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk tips: 1) natural conditions; 2) Electricity consumption; 3) Subsidy account period; 4) Equipment price.
